Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Over 214.5 (-112)

The 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics, are hosting the Philadelphia 76ers, who are likely to be without Joel Embiid for Game 1.

The 76ers' net rating in games with James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Embiid is +4.2. In games with Harden and Maxey active but Embiid off the floor, that net rating dips -- but is still positive: +2.8. The offensive rating falls from 120.8 to 119.7, a respectable shift.

Is this to say that, long-term, the 76ers are barely worse without Embiid? No, of course not. But are they terrible without him once controlling for Harden and Maxey's presence? Also no.

Boston, meanwhile, is a +6.6 in games with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown across a sample of more than 6,000 possessions.

Combining that with homecourt advantage and other adjustments, my model thinks the spread here should be 9.7 in Boston's favor, which means I'm not very interested in either side of Boston -10.0.

My model does like the combination of the offenses to score more than 214.5 combined points.

Again, Philadelphia's offensive rating is still pretty good with Embiid out so long as they're not decimated, and while it may feel like unders are constantly the right play in the playoffs, the over is still 22-23 (48.9%) so far this postseason.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

Over 227.5 (-110)
A Lean: Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-186)

The Denver Nuggets blew out the Phoenix Suns, 125-107, in Game 1 of their Western Conference playoff series.

This is despite identical 55.4% effective field goal percentages (eFG%) in the opening game of the series. Denver dominated in terms of turnover rate (7.7% to 14.9%) and on the offensive glass (earning a 34.8% offensive rebounding rate and allowing just a 19.5% offensive rebounding rate).

In terms of raw totals, the Nuggets won the turnover battle 16-9 and the rebounding battle 49-38.

The underlying data, per my tabulations, suggested an actual final score of 122-102 -- a slightly larger gap than what we actually got.

Entering Game 2, we have to balance reacting to Game 1 but also not understating the splits of the Suns with Kevin Durant.

In games with Durant, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Chris Paul), Phoenix is 12-2 overall (and 8-6 versus the spread and towards the over) while owning a point differential of +7.3. This is despite the -18 they earned in Game 1 of the series.

Denver was just average in eFG% allowed for the season, and that should point to better shooting for the Suns in Game 2.

For that reason, I like the over again in this game in a matchup between two elite offenses.

If I had to pick any spread or moneyline in action tonight, it's the Nuggets' moneyline. numberFire's model also likes it as a one-star play.