Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5 (-108)
The Lakers broke away down the stretch over the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 and ultimately won by five points (117-112).
Via the four factors, per Basketball-Reference, this was a very close game other than one specific factor: free throws.
| Four Factors | Pace | eFG% | TOV% | ORB% | FT/FGA | ORtg | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GSW (0-1) | 98.2 | .505 | 6.9 | 25.9 | .047 | 114.1 | 112.0 |
| LAL (1-0) | 98.2 | .500 | 7.1 | 27.1 | .272 | 119.2 | 117.0 |
Overall, the Lakers were 25 of 29 from the free-throw line with the Warriors going 5 for 6.
The Warriors' three-point attempt rate was elevated a bit for them, as they had 53 three-point attempts on 106 shot attempts (a three-point attempt rate of 50.0%). Their regular season rate was 47.9%.
That's partly why they were 29th in free throws per field goal attempt (.178) in the regular season. That .047 rate should come up a bit in Game 2, but they did not earn enough free throws in the opening game to close the gap between the two teams.
The Lakers ranked second on the season in free throws per field goal attempt (.232), so yes, their .272 mark should also scale back, yet this is clearly an advantageous category for them.
In Game 1, both teams had pretty poor shooting efficiency overall, and the underlying data for this game suggested a 114.5-109.6 win for the Lakers (a total of 224.1 points).
Golden State shot just 50.0% by effective field goal percentage (eFG%) despite a 57.1% mark in the regular season (third-best). The Lakers were an average team by eFG% at 54.2%.
Both teams were top-11 in eFG% allowed on the regular season with the Lakers at 53.5% (6th-best) and the Warriors at 54.0% (11th-best).
So, the Lakers played well, and it was supported by good data under the surface.
For that reason, taking the 5.5 points makes a lot of sense.