NBA
How the Warriors Laughed in the Face of Our Win Probability Chart in Game 3 Against the Pelicans
This Golden State Warriors team is special. All remaining doubters should be properly converted after last night's comeback victory.

The Golden State Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 123-119 in overtime in Game 3 of their first-round series on Thursday night, taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.

The result is pretty much what anyone would've expected, based on @warriors are the 3rd team in @NBAHistory to rally back from 20 down entering 4Q of a playoff game and win ('02 @celtics, '12 Clippers).

— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) April 24, 2015

Of course, what would a dramatic Golden State comeback be without a punctuation from this year's probable MVP,

With that miracle heave, the game was tied 108-108 and ultimately went into overtime, where the Warriors were able to prevail with the win. Apart from a dramatic comeback and a thrilling final shot in regulation, there were several box score lines that only further make the case for this game as an instant classic.

Curry finished with 40 points, 7 triples, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists. @StephenCurry30 is a bad, bad man. Here is your win probability graph: #warriors #pelicans #WARRIORSvPELICANS pic.twitter.com/zpqLOkfpA6

— numberFire (@numberFire) April 24, 2015

Wow.

Let me break that down for you a bit.

With 7:24 to go in the fourth, up 17 points, New Orleans had a 94.25% chance to win the game. Golden State cut it to 15 with 5:09 to go in regulation, and New Orleans still had a 94.38% chance at getting the W. The Warriors made it even more interesting by reducing the lead to 10 With 3:12 to go in the fourth, but the Pelicans maintained a 92.49% chance of winning the game.

Now, this is where things get crazy. With 49 seconds to go in the fourth, up four points, New Orleans still had a bankable 95.03% chance to win the game. Once it got down to 17 seconds and New Orleans was still up five? A near certain 98.23% chance to win.

Even when Golden State took the ball out of bounds with 9.6 seconds remaining and with a mere three-point deficit, New Orleans still had a 93.48% chance of making the series 2-1.

Too bad for the Pelicans, Steph Curry defies all odds and math in general. With 2.8 seconds left in regulation, he increased the Warriors chances of winning the game by a whopping 43.48% (to an even 50% heading into overtime). All it took was one near-impossible shot over half the Pelicans' roster (including a near-lock for First Team All-Defensive this year in Anthony Davis).

The Warriors went on to win in overtime and now hold a 98.87% chance of winning the series and increased their already ridiculous title odds to 45.63% (far and away the best in the league, trailed most closely by the 11.93% of the Atlanta Hawks).

So, the question is this: if this year's Warriors team can overcome a 1.77% chance of winning a basketball game, how likely is it starting to look that they can beat the field for a title with their odds to do so nearing 50%?

Nothing's a given, of course, but one thing is becoming abundantly clear: the Warriors don't give a damn about our odds anyway.

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