The Golden State Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 123-119 in overtime in Game 3 of their first-round series on Thursday night, taking a commanding 3-0 series lead.
The result is pretty much what anyone would've expected, based on @warriors are the 3rd team in @NBAHistory to rally back from 20 down entering 4Q of a playoff game and win ('02 @celtics, '12 Clippers).
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) April 24, 2015Of course, what would a dramatic Golden State comeback be without a punctuation from this year's probable MVP,
With that miracle heave, the game was tied 108-108 and ultimately went into overtime, where the Warriors were able to prevail with the win. Apart from a dramatic comeback and a thrilling final shot in regulation, there were several box score lines that only further make the case for this game as an instant classic.
Curry finished with 40 points, 7 triples, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists. @StephenCurry30 is a bad, bad man. Here is your win probability graph: #warriors #pelicans #WARRIORSvPELICANS pic.twitter.com/zpqLOkfpA6
— numberFire (@numberFire) April 24, 2015Wow.
Let me break that down for you a bit.
With 7:24 to go in the fourth, up 17 points, New Orleans had a 94.25% chance to win the game. Golden State cut it to 15 with 5:09 to go in regulation, and New Orleans still had a 94.38% chance at getting the W. The Warriors made it even more interesting by reducing the lead to 10 With 3:12 to go in the fourth, but the Pelicans maintained a 92.49% chance of winning the game.
Now, this is where things get crazy. With 49 seconds to go in the fourth, up four points, New Orleans still had a bankable 95.03% chance to win the game. Once it got down to 17 seconds and New Orleans was still up five? A near certain 98.23% chance to win.
Even when Golden State took the ball out of bounds with 9.6 seconds remaining and with a mere three-point deficit, New Orleans still had a 93.48% chance of making the series 2-1.
Too bad for the Pelicans, Steph Curry defies all odds and math in general. With 2.8 seconds left in regulation, he increased the Warriors chances of winning the game by a whopping 43.48% (to an even 50% heading into overtime). All it took was one near-impossible shot over half the Pelicans' roster (including a near-lock for First Team All-Defensive this year in Anthony Davis).
The Warriors went on to win in overtime and now hold a 98.87% chance of winning the series and increased their already ridiculous title odds to 45.63% (far and away the best in the league, trailed most closely by the 11.93% of the Atlanta Hawks).
So, the question is this: if this year's Warriors team can overcome a 1.77% chance of winning a basketball game, how likely is it starting to look that they can beat the field for a title with their odds to do so nearing 50%?
Nothing's a given, of course, but one thing is becoming abundantly clear: the Warriors don't give a damn about our odds anyway.