In various ways, signing four-year, $44-million deal help the Pacers or not?
Beyond the Box Score
Ellis averaged 18.9 points per game with the Mavericks last year, making him one of just 24 players to do so. Among the 24, Ellis ranked just 20th in Effective Field Goal percentage (47.5%) and 23rd in True Shooting percentage (50.9%, better than only Spotrac. The other player also has a four-year, $44 million deal: Stephen Curry.
Two other guards, Jrue Holiday and Alec Burks, have similar deals, each earning upward of $10 million per season.
Burks played in just 27 games this year for the Jazz and secured a nERD of -0.4. Evans (-2.1) and Holiday (1.1) were still better effeciency-wise overall (based on nERD) than Ellis was during their time on the floor with the Pelicans last year. (And in case you're curious, Curry led the NBA in nERD at 20.5).
At the end of the day, Ellis will be able to put points on the board for the Pacers, and that's really what this agreement was about. However, expecting him to increase his efficiency is not a smart bet, as he has a combined -6.9 nERD in his two seasons with the Mavericks, who have ranked inside the top five in Offensive Rating in each of those seasons.
The Pacers might notch a few more points per game, but unless Ellis changes his ways, Indiana might continue to live outside the top 20 in Offensive Rating in 2015-16.