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The Best of the Best

LeBron James - LeBron actually isn't as strong of a play as normal, and that's due to Boston's recent smothering defense. However, off days for LeBron are like weak Jay-Z raps: they're still better than everyone else 99 percent of the time. That's certainly been his deal against Boston this year, averaging 30 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game in two contests against them this year (although to be fair, the second of those games went to 2 OTs). Boston's dead-last offensive rebounding rate and 17^th defensive rebounding rate, coupled with Garnett as a game-time decision, should give him plenty of opportunities for rebounds.

Josh Smith - The Dallas defense is just plain average. 17^th in defensive rating? Average. 12^th in defensive effective field goal percentage (eFG%)? Average. 10^th in defensive rebounding percentage but 28^th in offensive rebounding percentage? Equals out to average. Josh Smith's average of 19 points, nine rebounds, six assists, and two steals since returning from injury two games ago? Clearly above average.

Al Jefferson - With Tyson Chandler out for the past two games and questionable to suit up tonight, Al Jefferson may be up against the two-headed "monster" of Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby. Thomas has an equal 104 defensive rating to Tyson Chandler, but his true rebound percentage sits six percent below Chandler's high 19.4 percent mark. Camby, meanwhile, has the Chandler-like high rebound numbers, but he's only played in 19 games this year and is not seen as a top playing option. Watch out for Jefferson to exploit this hole and be the go-to man for Utah tonight.

Top Mid-Range Values

Evan Turner - In Philadelphia's most recent three-game stretch against playoff teams in Indiana, Brooklyn, and Miami, Turner has slowly but surely started to turn his fortunes around. Three straight double-digit point games and almost five boards per contest later, and Turner is starting to see some of his fantasy value return. That places him in good graces just in time to face a Portland squad that is 25^th in defensive rating, 21^st in defensive eFG%, and, important for Turner's team-leading 14.2 percent turnover rate, 27^th in forcing opponent turnovers.

Steve Nash - In speaking of getting on a hot streak, Nash has done just that over his past three games. Averaging 15 points and 9.3 assists per game over that span, Nash just completed one of his best games of the year against Sacramento yesterday, finished with 19 points and 12 assists. While the Phoenix Suns might not be at the Kings' level of suckitude, they are still a good candidate to keep Nash's good times rolling: they have allowed point guards to shoot .518 eFG% from the field against them this season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - The rookie Kidd-Gilchrist is going through a shooting slump befitting of a Charlotte Bobcat recently; he hasn't been over .500 eFG% in a game since March 6. But if you know anything about how we do things here at numberFire, a player will always regress to the mean eventually, and for Kidd-Gilchrist, that means a below-average-but-workable .451 eFG%. The Wizards aren't the best bet to get that average back up, but when his expected regression to the mean is coupled with the high rebounding opportunities the Wizards allow, his low cost is just too sweet to not take advantage.