The Heat are decent, I guess. That Four Factors we can decipher with the information we have from the way-back machine.
'13 Miami | '13 NBA Rank | '72 L.A. | '72 NBA Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive eFG% | .549 | 1 | .490 | 2 |
Defensive eFG% | .487 | 9 | .432 | 2 |
Off. FT Factor | .226 | 5 | .260 | 4 |
Def. FT Factor | .204 | 16 | .177 | 1 |
Miami may be able to shoot lights out, but the Lakers smoke the Heat in the other three categories. Shooting percentages across the board were down back then compared to today's NBA, but a .432 defensive effective field goal percentage is still a ludicrously low number. Say what you want about Wilt's exploits off the court, but that man could play some defense as well as score (pun not intended).
That free throw factor, measured by FT/FGA, provides a few more insights. Especially with Wilt down low, the Lakers were able to get to the line with extreme regularity. Perhaps the more surprising statistic, though, is just how little they fouled. Two teams this season have a lower FT factor than the '72 Lakers: the Brooklyn Nets (.167) and the '13 version of the Lakers (.162).
For what it's worth, the '13 Thunder might be more similar to that '72 L.A. team than the Heat; OKC currently sits No. 2 in offensive eFG% and No. 4 in defensive eFG%. They also, by the way, sit ahead of Miami in our overall team power rankings, even with Miami's current long streak. We don't pull this stuff out of thin air, you know.
How About the Bulls?
Just for fun, we ran the same type of numbers for Michael Jordan's return team, pitting the '95-96 Bulls against these Heat. There was the same type of issues (different time period means you can only compare to other teams at the time), but there is considerably more efficiency data to go off of from just 17 years ago.
Victor | Series Length | Odds |
---|---|---|
Chicago Bulls | 4 Games | 9.99% |
Chicago Bulls | 5 Games | 17.34% |
Chicago Bulls | 6 Games | 19.44% |
Chicago Bulls | 7 Games | 17.68% |
Miami Heat | 4 Games | 3.76% |
Miami Heat | 5 Games | 7.73% |
Miami Heat | 6 Games | 11.19% |
Miami Heat | 7 Games | 12.88% |
Yeah, we're taking MJ with even more confidence over this Heat squad. Given a neutral floor and neutral time period, that 72-win Bulls squad would defeat this Heat team with 64.5 series victory odds. That would be just another trophy for Jordan to add to the shelf.