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The Best of the Best

Dwight Howard - It's funny, our optimized rosters are split on whether DH12 or Kobe is the better value today. Two rosters star Howard, and two rosters star Kobe. Against the Bucks, though, the bigger advantage seems to be at the center position. For all of the talk about Larry Sanders' defense, it's somewhat surprising to learn that he allows opposing centers to shoot a .511 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) against him as compared to slightly smaller PFs who shoot .424 eFG%. Centers grab 15.5 rebounds per 48 minutes against Milwaukee as well.

Monta Ellis - I'd say this qualifies as a tear: Ellis has scored at least 20 points in five of his past six contests. Making that even more impressive is that he played through the flu in the middle of that stretch, still finishing with 22 against Indiana (the NBA's most efficient defensive team). Sure, he's getting there by jacking up as many shots as humanly possible, but you shouldn't be concerned about that as long as he's getting the final numbers. And get the numbers he will, especially against Jodie Meeks's 109 defensive rating (more on him later).

Paul George - To be fair, Shawn Marion's defense actually isn't half bad. His 105 defensive rating is one of the top marks on the Mavericks, even if opposing small forwards are shooting .529 eFG% against him at that position this year. But let's reiterate something: a 105 defensive rating is one of the top marks on the Mavericks. Paul George sits second on the team with a 23.8 percent usage rating, but team leader David West will be (somewhat) limited by Elton Brand's strong post D. It'll be George's night to shine.

Top Mid-Range Values

Jodie Meeks - Normally facing off against Monta Ellis would be Kobe's duty and would allow him a time to shine. With Metta World Peace out for a while, though, Kobe shifts over to small forward to battle Luc Mbah a Moute. In his place, the man looking to take advantage of Ellis's 106 defensive rating will be Jodie Meeks. Having played 35 minutes in his last game with World Peace out, we expect Meeks to keep up the high minutes tonight. With Ellis's defense, the points could be there too: Meeks has 12.9 projected points tonight.

DeMarcus Cousins - I'm never quick to trust a headcase. But on the other hand, this is a headcase that is going against the league's No. 22 defensive rating, No. 25 defensive rebound percentage, and has their best post defender (Marcin Gortat) still out indefinitely. Luis Scola has allowed opposing centers to shoot an incredible .551 eFG% against him at that position this season. Yeah, I think I'm fine trusting the headcase this time.

O.J. Mayo - The Pacers hold the league's No. 1 DRtg but only its 25^th-quickest pace. There isn't a single position where opponents are shooting above .470 eFG% against them this season, and they are still playing to avoid Miami in round two. So why would I even think about playing O.J. Mayo? Because somebody has to score, and the Pacers have a relative inefficiency at shooting guard: Lance Stephenson has allowed opposing SGs to shoot .471 eFG% against him at that spot this season. Coupled with Mayo's own 21.6 percent usage rate and .531 eFG%, he's my best guess for a Dallas star.