When sports historians look back at the 2012-2013 season, they may just say that the season turned on a big game from nERD Rankings, which measures each individual team in terms of their overall efficiency, the Lakers are the No. 10 team in the NBA. The Warriors aren't too far behind at No. 12, and the Rockets sit just ahead at No. 9.
So how many games should these two teams be expected to win? For Utah, two is indeed the magic number, while three wins pulls in the best odds for the Lakers.
| Projected Wins | Utah Jazz Odds | Los Angeles Lakers Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.30% | 0.79% |
| 1 | 31.33% | 7.77% |
| 2 | 38.29% | 24.37% |
| 3 | 18.67% | 36.14% |
| 4 | 3.41% | 24.70% |
| 5 | N/A | 6.23% |
Remember that the Jazz hold half a game on the Lakers right now, and to add insult to injury, the Jazz hold the season-series two to one. So that means the Lakers need to win two more games than Utah to get the eight seed.
As you can see on our team rankings page, that lead gives the Jazz the best playoff odds of any team still fighting for the eight seed. While the Lakers still hold a solid chance since they actually are the more efficient team and all that, the two win differential needed may just be too large to overcome.
| Team | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 57.6% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 42.3% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.7% |
Quick Note: The numbers don't add up to 100 percent because the Rockets and Warriors do hold a mathematical chance at missing the playoffs. However, at 99.7 percent and 99.6 percent odds, respectively, we wouldn't bet on it.