Last week, I so eloquently explained why tanking for the East's six seed to avoid the Heat might be the Four Factors categories, while the Hawks hold the edge in each category on the defensive side of the ball.
| Team | Off. eFG% | Off. TOV% | ORB% | Off. FT/FGA | Def. eFG% | Def. TOV% | DRB% | Def. FT/FGA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | .520 | 14.3 | 22.0 | 1.74 | .495 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 1.80 |
| TOR | .486 | 13.0 | 25.5 | 2.14 | .501 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 2.50 |
I have to imagine it's not exactly a good thing for Atlanta's playoff hopes that the only one of the offensive Four Factors where they aren't in the bottom five of the league is effective field goal percentage, where they rank sixth overall. Toronto, meanwhile, sits in the top 11 in both offensive turnover percentage and offensive free throw factor.
This means strength will be going against strength in tonight's game. It won't be an easy one for the Hawks. While they may hold an edge in the playoff race if they win tonight, that win still isn't guaranteed.
For our hypothetical money, we're still expecting those Brooklyn/Chicago and Indiana/Atlanta matchups in the East's first round. Sorry Hawks fans, but you might be screwed yet again.
If you're looking for game projections, including the exact projected score, of tonight's Atlanta/Toronto game and all of tomorrow's contests, check out numberFire's Premium Section now and throughout the Playoffs. And for full championship odds, check out our Team Rankings page, where the Heat rule the roost.