Make sure you check out Four Factors, Denver sits in the top 13 of the NBA in seven of them. The only sore spot? That 71.8 percent defensive rebound rate, No. 27 in the NBA. Luckily for Denver, though, Golden State also holds a relative weakness in offensive rebounding, as their 25.4 percent offensive rebound rate sits No. 21 in the NBA.
Golden State's real strength comes at the defensive end of the floor, where David Lee's personal 24.5 percent defensive rebound rate has spurred the Warriors to a league-best 75.5 percent defensive rebound rate. It's amazing how well they're able to clean up the glass... until they play Denver.
You see, the Nuggets hold the NBA's best offensive rebound rate, grabbing the board on 31.4 percent of available offensive rebound opportunities. Both Kosta Koufos and Kenneth Faried also sit in the top six of individual offensive rebound rates, both above 13 percent.
Denver won the offensive rebound battle in three of their four games against Golden State this season. They also won all three of those games. They also lost the only game where Golden State had a higher offensive rebound percentage. Just saying.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
Most Likely Result: Los Angeles Clippers in 7
| 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Total Win Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 9.25% | 18.27% | 17.07% | 18.73% | 63.32% |
| Memphis | 3.34% | 8.00% | 13.89% | 11.45% | 36.68% |
Stat to Know: Clippers' Effective Field Goal Percentage
It's strength vs. strength going head-to-head in this series: the Clippers' effective field goal percentage against the Grizzlies' lockdown shot defense. The Clippers shot .526 eFG% from the field this season, good for fourth in the NBA. With Chris Paul on the floor, that percentage was even better: his units managed to shoot an incredible .539 eFG%.
Considering that teams also usually shot well against the Clippers (their defensive eFG% sits an average 12th), L.A. often had to shoot their way to wins. And at least recently, it has worked: the Clippers didn't shoot under .494 eFG% the entire month of April, and they went 7-1 over that span.
Memphis, though, may be their toughest challenge. The Grizzlies' allowed opponents to shoot only .475 eFG% against them this season, the third-best mark in the NBA. Breaking it down by position, only small forwards (.503 eFG%) shot above .500 against them this season, and a major portion of that figure was the now-departed Rudy Gay's .520 eFG% allowed to opposing shooting guards while in Memphis.
The Clippers' four games against Memphis this season surely fell along those lines. The three times L.A. shot at least .490 eFG%, they won the game. In their only loss against Memphis this season, they shot only .472 eFG% from the field.