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The Best of the Best

Chris Paul - Game 1 showed just how much the Clippers will be relying on CP3, even if his shooting was somewhat of a surprise. Entering the series, Mike Conley had allowed opposing point guards to shoot just a .455 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) against him this season. That's why we expect a few less points but a few more dimes from Paul in tonight's game: his 33.1 percent assist rate in Game 1 was way under his 46.5 percent season average.

Marc Gasol - He's big, he played 40 minutes in Game 1, and let's be honest: that three percent total rebound percentage isn't going to happen again. Gasol finished the regular season grabbing rebounds on 13.2 percent of available opportunities, which may not be Zach Randolph's 19.3 percent rate, but it's certainly enough to justify his projected 7.8 boards tonight. His .333 eFG% from Game 1 is likely to see a bump closer to his .494 eFG% season average as well.

Brook Lopez - An ailing Joakim Noah is a good thing, right? It sure seemed to be in Game 1, when Lopez went 7 for 15 from the field and wracked up a 120 offensive rating as part of Brooklyn's systematic demolition of the Bulls. The scariest part, though? The Nets didn't have nearly as high of a free throw factor (.182 in Game 1, .219 on the season) or offensive rebounding percentage (18.8% in Game 1, 30.9% on the season) as they could have. Both of those numbers regressing to the mean will bolster Lopez even further.

Top Mid-Range Values

Jimmy Butler - With Joakim Noah doing his best Tiny Tim impression on the court, Butler may be the most sure thing in the Bulls starting lineup left. In Game 1, he was the only Bulls player to average over 1.2 points per possession, and his 39 minutes kept his streak of 15 games with at least 35 minutes played alive. Deng and Boozer are projected to gain more fantasy points, but neither comes with Butler's across-the-board low cost.

Mike Conley - Conley may have only played 28 minutes in the opener due to foul trouble, but that's the extreme low end of his scale: Conley had previously only played less than 30 minutes twice since January. More court time means more opportunities, and Conley's 35.1 percent assist rate could yield big dividends once again. Turnovers will hurt, for sure, but Conley's own 3.4 percent steal rate will help get some of those lost fantasy points right back.

Joe Johnson - Some people may have been surprised that Johnson was able to amass 16 points against the Bulls defense, but should they have been? In four games against Chicago this season, Johnson never finished with less than 11 points in a single contest. His 7 for 13 shooting night will be tough to maintain considering Chicago's .454 eFG% allowed to opposing shooting guards, but Johnson's 26.3 percent usage rate in Game 1 shows that Brooklyn isn't shy attacking that part of the Bulls D.