Finding players you want to roster is a lot easier than finding players to avoid. Here are three players based on their price and matchups that could be landmines for your rosters tonight.
You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include in your DFS NBA lineups tonight, but what about some guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?
Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets each night. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup.
With a smaller slate of NBA games on tonight, searching for the landmines could mean the difference from winning or losing your contests.
Greg Monroe, C, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Price: $6,800
The Greg Monroe signing was supposed to propel the Bucks into contention in the Eastern Conference this year after battling in the playoffs last year and being two years removed from being one of the worst teams in the league. However, regression and injury has set in this season, and the Bucks look like they will once again miss the playoffs. Monroe’s play this season has been solid at times, but he has also become a liability on defense, and his inability to make shots outside of 8 to 10 feet has really limited his minutes.
Monroe has played fewer than 30 minutes in seven of the Bucks’ last nine games, and while his production on a fantasy point per minute basis is still good, his price of $6,800 has not dropped enough to make him a viable play tonight for the minutes he has been getting.
While the Raptors rank 18th in defense against centers this season, Miles Plumlee has simply been outplaying Monroe at times over their last four games, and that could lead Jason Kidd to give Plumlee even more minutes. In the Bucks’ last three wins, Plumlee has played more than 20 minutes in all of them, and while Monroe is still playing slightly more than Plumlee, even off the bench, it’s clear that the Bucks play better as a team when the two are in a time share. That is not good for Monroe’s fantasy value tonight, so instead of risking it with him, save the $3,000 in salary and go down to Plumlee and use the savings elsewhere.
Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics
FanDuel Price: $7,900
The Celtics and Pacers are set to hook up for the fourth time this year tonight. While Isaiah Thomas' matchup isn’t incredibly difficult for him, the loss of Jae Crowder might go overlooked tonight for the Celtics heading out on the road. However, the Pacers still rank as the 11th-best team against point guards this year, giving up only 0.86 FanDuel points per minute. Along with that, Thomas has not been at his best fantasy-wise in his three games against Indiana this season.
Thomas is averaging 23 points per game against Indiana this season, but his counting stats have simply not been there. Both of these teams rank in the top five in Defensive Efficiency this season, and on the year, Thomas is averaging around only 30 FanDuel points per game against the Pacers.
On top of all of this, according to NBA Wowy, Thomas’ FanDuel points per minute go from 1.11 to 1.04 when Crowder is off the court, and his Effective Field Goal Percentage drops from 48.8 to 45 percent with Crowder off the court. While those dips aren’t that severe, combined with the below average matchup, as well as a road game tonight, Thomas might find it hard to get to the 35 or 40 FanDuel points needed to reach value.
J.J. Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Price: $4,800
J.J. Redick faces one of the toughest matchups a shooting guard can ask for tonight against Danny Green and the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs rank as the best team against shooing guards this season when it comes to FanDuel points per game, giving up only 0.66 FanDuel points per minute to the position. Redick has bested some bad matchups before this season, but his consistency over the last three of four games might convince players he is safer than he actually is tonight.
Redick is averaging over 25 FanDuel points over his last four games. Two of those games came against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league against shooting guards. On top of that, the Spurs could choose to put Green on Chris Paul at times, which would leave Kawhi Leonard to chase around Redick some, which is obviously a much worse matchup for Redick.
Even in Redick’s regular season matchups against Green in the past, Green has consistently held down Redick’s fantasy points per game. In his last nine regular season games against Green as a member of the Magic and Clippers, Redick is averaging only 17 FanDuel points per game.