In Game 1 against the Spurs, the Warriors shot a .565 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on 100 attempted shots. They collected 27.3 percent of available offensive rebounds. They were up 104-88 with less than four minutes remaining. They had it; they conquered the Alamo.
But Tony "Davy Crockett" Parker doesn't give up that easily.
You also know what happened at the end of the second OT: there was 82games.com, Curry only shoots .496 eFG% between nine and five seconds left on the shot clock and only .417 eFG% with four or less seconds left. Naturally, his shot is blocked when he attempts one at five seconds left.
1:17 Left: 18.0 percent - Now we're in one-possession game territory. Tony Parker's layup - his fourth field goal of this comeback after having just four previously all game - cuts the Golden State lead to 3.
However, the Spurs still didn't hold a great chance to win, with their odds less than 1-in-5. A big reason for that is Golden State's own offensive efficiency. The Warriors averaged 1.064 points per possession during the regular season, the 11th-highest mark in the NBA. Curry's own personal mark sat at 1.15 points per possession, helped out tremendously by those copious amounts of threes. But this may be where the Warriors missed David Lee the most - his 1.10 points per possession sat second among the Warriors' starters this year. Instead, it's Landry who misses the next shot.
0:20 Left: 35.2 percent - Boris Diaw's two free throws and Jarrett Jack's jumper sets up Danny Green's final Alamo defense - a dagger three-pointer that knots the game at 106.
The Spurs still weren't the favorites at this point, since the Warriors had the ball and regulation's final possession and all. However, Curry's inability to shoot late in the clock reared its ugly head again, and off to overtime we headed after a missed shot with a second left. In the span of less than four minutes, the Spurs went from a 0.5 percent chance of victory to overtime.
The Spurs shouldn't have won this game. Put these two teams in the same situation tomorrow, and the Warriors likely pull it out. But in the playoffs, you need to close. Even with all of the odds on their side, the Warriors just couldn't do it. And with San Antonio now holding an 82.2 percent chance of winning the season per our projections, Game 1 may become the toughest pill to swallow for Golden State fans.