I'll admit it: I didn't take the Grizzlies that seriously. I mean, if you have a team that has now lost his confidence so far this series. I'm going to take it one step further: the Grizzlies have found exactly how to get Ibaka out of his rhythm, and it's not likely come back any time soon.

The lack of a Russell Westbrook on the perimeter allows the Grizzlies to load up on defensive pressure in the paint, and Ibaka isn't seeing the late-in-the-shot-clock open looks he's used to. And without his reliable presence, the Thunder are absolutely lost.

Shot Chart

Shot chart per basketball-reference.com.

See all of those red splotches about 20 feet away from the basket? That's not good. Serge Ibaka is at his best when dominating the paint, using his size and strength to grab offensive boards for easy scoring opportunities. According to 82games.com, Ibaka held a .628 eFG% on shots in close to the basket this season, accounting for 21 percent of his total shots taken.

That same table, though, reveals something interesting about his jump shooting ability. During the regular season, his outside shot actually wasn't all that bad. His effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the usefulness of three's, even if Ibaka didn't make that many) sat at .505 eFG% during the regular season. For comparison's sake, Durant's jump shot eFG% wasn't much worse at .522 eFG%, and fellow forward 82games.com

But what happens when Westbrook is no longer there as that second option forcing defenses out on the perimeter? If Game 3 is any indication, Ibaka won't get any of those late-in-the-clock easy opportunities inside. In fact, Ibaka only took one shot in the final four seconds of the shot clock - a desperation 20-foot jumper as the shot clock was expiring in the fourth quarter.

Game 3 eFG% by Shot Clock

Early in the shot clock, when Ibaka's seeing his normal fast-break buckets or offensive rebound put-backs? Not much of a change. But past those early makes? Serge Ibaka couldn't buy a bucket to save his life.

And here's where his shot selection and Memphis' use of the shot clock merge. His two shots made between 11 and 15 seconds in the shot clock were the only two times he attempted a shot within three feet in the final 14 seconds of the shot clock. He missed five field goals at 16 seconds into the possession or above - those five shots were taken from 19 feet, 19 feet, 19 feet, 20 feet, and five feet (in order of appearance).

They couldn't feed it to him down low through the normal running of the offense. He wasn't hitting shots outside. Nothing was working for Serge Ibaka in Game 3. Considering he's now shot 12 for 39 this series, I don't see that changing any time soon. The Grizzlies have figured out the distinct gameplan to stopping OKC's forced No. 2 option.

Looking Forward

Our analytics don't see great tidings for Ibaka moving forward. Using regression analysis, Ibaka should only be expected to shoot .408 eFG% in a given game without Westbrook out as compared to .589 eFG% with him around. Granted, that's with a small sample size of games without Westbrook (that's what happens when Westbrook had played in every game since the Carter Presidency), but it's still an interesting figure to look at.

After the Thunder's Game 3 loss, our analytics don't give them a particularly high chance moving forward. The Grizzlies are now our favorite to win the series, and Memphis now holds an 8.8 percent chance at the Title according to our power rankings.

For the Thunder to come back, somebody will have to step up as that second option behind Durant. It might be Martin. It might be Jackson. It could even still be Ibaka. But with the Grizzlies' defense strategy on the forward, I wouldn't be holding my breath for a Serge-inspired offense Renaissance any time soon.