Up one, two seconds left in overtime. Four Factors weakness. Indiana, meanwhile, held the league's sixth-best defensive rebound rate at 74.6 percent during the regular season. Their 61.9 percent rate from Game 1 has to regress to the mean if the Pacers are going to fight back against the Heat.
Limit Inside Scoring
The Pacers were incredibly efficient at holding down the Heat as an overall squad - Miami finished with a .506 eFG%, a figure they had only finished below in 14 of their 82 regular season games (including one against Indiana). That was exactly the type of defensive performance they needed to stay in it given their own below-average shooting.
If they are to completely shut down the Heat, however, Miami's efficiency in the paint needs to be keyed in on. Dwyane Wade didn't attempt a single three-pointer (in fact, Miami's 18 three-point attempts was tied for their lowest all Playoffs), but he still finished with 19 points by virtue of a 9 for 15 shooting day. Birdman, meanwhile, will almost never repeat his 16 points. But the fact that he was ever able to shoot 7 for 7 and grab 16 points does not bode well for Indiana's interior defense.
Yes, I know Hibbert and David West were in foul trouble, and yes, I know a lot of those successful field goals were on offensive rebound put-backs. But physicality inside was never a question we'd thought we'd have to focus on for the Indiana Pacers in this series. Even more than LeBron's layup, though, it may have lowered their win odds by 30 percent heading into Game 2.