Coming into the Western Conference Finals, the Spurs held an 8.13 percent chance of sweeping the Grizzlies, with the most likely finish being a Spurs win in seven games. Well, so much for our Memphis faith.
The Grizzlies may have been solid during the regular season Four Factors categories where San Antonio holds a distinct edge are defensive rebounding and defensive free throw factor, keeping the field goal percentage battle close and grabbing an outlier shooting performance or two is imperative to winning. They really don't have many other ways to try and steal four games from the Heat.
San Antonio vs. Indiana
Most Likely Outcome: San Antonio Spurs in 7 Games
| 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Total Win Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 6.85% | 16.67% | 14.88% | 18.70% | 57.10% |
| Indiana | 4.85% | 8.98% | 16.88% | 12.19% | 42.90% |
Key to the Series: San Antonio's Turnover Percentage
The general media may already have penciled in a Heat/Spurs Finals (fine, fine, I'm one of them). According to our analytics, though, the Pacers still hold a 16.55 percent chance of taking down the Miami Heat. They even hold a 6.80 percent chance of taking the series in six games. There's always hope!
But if there would be hope for an NBA title (and the Pacers currently hold only 7.1 percent title odds), it may just come down to how well the Pacers can perfect the Memphis strategy. The Grizzlies couldn't take down the Spurs because of their shooting, but Paul George and David West did lead Indiana to a slightly higher (by .009) offensive eFG% than Memphis during the regular season.
In order to fully utilize the Memphis' strategy, however, the Pacers will need to beef up their turnover rates. Indiana finished the regular season No. 27 in offensive turnover percentage and No. 26 in defensive turnover percentage. That simply won't get it done against San Antonio's average percentages; Indiana will need a few outlier performances of high turnover games from Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili to stay close.
Say Indiana forces some turnovers and the two teams even tie in turnover percentage. Given Indiana's extreme advantage in offensive rebounding and a projected close field goal percentage battle, wouldn't you give the edge to Indiana in that situation? And it all comes down to whether the Spurs will be flustered by the Pacers defense when they have the ball.