I grew up in Wilmington, Delaware. It takes about 40 minutes from my childhood driveway, assuming I-95 doesn't back up somewhere near Chester, to walk in the door of the Wells Fargo Center. Throughout elementary and middle school, I had no choice but to grow up in the age of Theo Ratliff and Aaron McKie and that Iverson guy who didn't like to practice. Sixers fans still dominate my Facebook wall and Twitter news feed.
So last night was fun. I don't think I've seen an angrier mob of Philadelphia fans since Scott Rolen asked out of town or Donovan McNabb spoke words that one time.
Judging by the public perception, new 76ers GM Sam Hinkie is somewhere between Clubber Lang, Michael Irvin, and the Guy who Cracked the Liberty Bell on the list of Enemies of the City. I think my favorite quote I saw was, "'Passionate, Proud, and Stupid' should be the team's new motto for hiring you". What I wouldn't give to be able to tune into 610 WIP this morning.
You know, that's all a shame. Because in actuality, Sam Hinkie made one of the shrewdest moves in the NBA last night, setting the 76ers up with multiple young pieces for a long-term run. All he had to give up was one of the single least efficient players in the NBA to do it.
Why Do People Like Holiday?
Here is the public perception on nERD score for his overall efficiency. This is an estimate of how many games above or below .500 a team would be with that player as a starter alongside a league-average team. For example, LeBron had a ridiculous 27.3 nERD this past season, meaning that if the Heat started LeBron and four average players, they would still be expected to go 55-27. Norris Cole, meanwhile, would lead an average team to a 39-43 record with his inefficient play thanks to his -5.3 nERD.
Jrue Holiday? Well, let's just say that he fails the nERD test. Miserably. His -6.3 nERD last season means that the Sixers could have just replaced him with an average efficiency player (say, Steve Blake) and actually gained three wins. That makes him the ninth-least efficient player in the entire NBA last season. (For what it's worth, Evan Turner was second-worst with a -8.4 nERD).
This is nothing new for the point guard. In his four years in the league, Jrue has never even once played replacement-level ball. His -0.7 nERD from 2011 is his best efficiency rating, and his overall efficiency has decreased each of the past four seasons. Now, is that a guy that you'd want as the centerpiece of your team moving forward? I tend to believe that he's not going to make an amazing Rocky-type Renaissance in Season 5 in Philly.
Sam Hinkie is an analytics guy; he comes from the Daryl Morey tree in Houston. This is 100 percent an advanced analytics move, even if Noel and the 2014 first don't pan out. Trading Jrue Holiday makes the Sixers a more efficient team right away, and their projected wins actually go up by not having him on the roster.
We're analytics people here too, so it's no surprise we like the move. Public perception isn't always correct, and it certainly isn't in this case. Jrue Holiday had to go before the Sixers could truly become a great team.