UCLA finished 4-1 in their final five games, and they rank 39th in nERD (9.48). Those four wins came by an average score of 85.3-69.3, a difference of 16 points. Still, there was some outrage when they were announced to be the 11 seed in the South region.

Why?

Well, those four wins came against Washington (3.79 nERD, 110th in the country), Washington State (-0.76, 172nd), and USC twice (0.92, 150th). Despite that easy stretch, their record was just 12-11 in their final 23 contests.

They did have the 29th-toughest schedule in the country, and we pegged them as a 12 seed despite a 48.10 chance to make the tournament. They may not deserve the outrage, but the Bruins haven't beat a team inside the top 50 in nERD since they beat Stanford, whose nERD of 9.30 ranks them 44th, by a score of 69-67 on February 5th.

Southern Methodist (11.13 nERD, 30th) isn't substantially better per our metrics, but it's been a while since UCLA has proved itself, making this a very enticing matchup.