Buffalo's nERD of 8.32 ranks 57th in the country, and they have the potential to make some noise in the tournament, starting with West Virginia (12.90 nERD, 21st).

Based on our nERD rating, they are a potential upset in the making, and when you factor in pace and other factors, they have the best shot at the 12-over-5 upset this year. Why?

Well, their offense ranks in the 83rd percentile behind their Offensive Rating of 108.8, which ranks 54th. Justin Moss, who has a team-best Usage Rate of 28.7 percent, shot 226 free throw attempts this year (13th in the country) and converted 73.5 percent of his shots from the charity stripe.

Their defense isn't quite as strong, ranking in the 64th percentile, which could be an issue because West Virginia's offense ranks in the 73rd percentile. If Buffalo's offense can convert against the tough Mountaineer defense (which ranks in the 81st percentile), then they could make a run toward the Sweet 16 based on their potential Round of 32 matchup against either Maryland (10.72 nERD, 33rd) or Valparaiso (6.52, 73rd).

Buffalo's main concern is consistency, and the Bulls are more consistent than only 26.1 percent of schools on a game-to-game basis, according to our math. If they can keep it together, they could advance.