One of the best parts of March Madness is the build up, the road to get in. Even if some schools get slotted into an ill-fated 16 seed, an NCAA Tournament berth can be historic for programs with a lacking track record.
Of course, some schools -- power conference teams and teams firmly in the AP Top 25 -- are pretty much shoo-ins to lock up a spot even before guaranteed bids are earned or conference tournaments start.
Which teams never ranked in the AP top 25 this season are looking likely to get a chance to dance, based on our bracketology projections?
These are the schools without an AP rank during the season with at least a 50% chance shot to make the tournament, per our algorithm. North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks are 20-2 and 45th by our nERD rating (and 44th per KenPom.com). With the College of Charleston Cougars ranking 100th by nERD, UNC Wilmington has a massive lead over the second-best team in the Colonial Athletic Conference in terms of efficiency.
- The Southern Methodist Mustangs rank 26th by nERD, second in the American Athletic Conference behind the Cincinnati Bearcats (18th). We project SMU for a 9 seed this year. They're the fifth-slowest team in the nation, per our metrics.
- The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 8-0 in Conference USA play and 18-3 overall. They rank 52nd by nERD and 48th according to KenPom. They're looking to build on their performance last year, when they defeated Michigan State as a 15 seed.
- In the WAC, the New Mexico State Aggies are 6-0 and 19-2 overall. They do rank just 85th by nERD, but that's a massive jump on the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners, the second-best team in the conference, who rank 134th by nERD.
- The Dayton Flyers rank 30th according to our metrics and have an 83.64% chance to go dancing, which they've done three years in a row.