Pace and space is all the rage in the NBA. Among many others, top teams like the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets seem to have perfected this style of play. Like with many other trends and shifts in theory, college basketball seems to be picking up the pace rather quickly.
Due to the lack of refined NBA talent, we don't often point out the teams who best implement this practice. They are not so easily separated from the rest of the pack. But, now that the NCAA Tournament is upon us, we have reason to dig deeper into which teams play at the highest tempo.
In exploring this aspect of the game, we look at Sports Reference's pace factor (estimated possessions per 40 minutes) and our very own pace percentiles, measured up to 1.000, meaning that particular team's speed of play is higher than all others. For another reference point, a team with a rating of .972 is faster than 97.2% of schools.
We will also be referring to consistency, our measure of a team's predictability from game to game. In this category, a higher rating -- say, .923 -- tells us they're very inconsistent in their performance. On the other hand, a rating of .168 would suggest a team is very consistent. This relates to pace for the fact that higher-paced teams tend to be spotty as it pertains to defensive effort.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys' up-and-down style have been quite, well, up and down. The Cowboys went 20-12 this season, including 9-9 in Big 12 play while besting Tournament teams in Wichita State and West Virginia, but also dropping one to the 11-22 Texas Longhorns.
Their top-50 pace has yielded inconsistent performance and results, which is proven by the Cowboys' consistency of .923. They are among the most unpredictable teams in the field in that area because of their defense.
Although Oklahoma State ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive rating (124.47 points per 100 possessions) and eighth in points per game (85.5), they're just 89th in adjusted (for strength of competition) defensive rating (97.11) while hemorrhaging 78.0 points per contest.
They'll need to bite down defensively if they hope to knock of the 7-seeded Michigan Wolverines in their First Round matchup.
4. North Dakota Fighting Sioux (15 Seed, West Region)
Percentile Rank: .872
As winners of the Big Sky Conference, the North Dakota Fighting Sioux join the Cowboys as the only other team on the lower end of the seeding pool. They're also the only team here lower than a 10 seed and will face off against the Arizona Wildcats in their opening game. It will be an interesting contest to watch given that Arizona ranks in the 14th percentile in pace and North Dakota is in the 87th.
Arizona should be okay so long as they can exploit North Dakota's inefficiencies. As opposed to the Cowboys' top-notch offense, the Fighting Sioux -- despite averaging over 80 points per game -- possess an adjusted offensive rating of 100.89 to go with an adjusted defensive rating of 102.13.
Doing the math, that's an adjusted net rating of -1.24, which won't bode well against an elite major-conference power.
3. Creighton Bluejays (6 Seed, Midwest Region)
Percentile Rank: .909
The Creighton Bluejays have had a tough year for cohesiveness. They've had multiple players -- including top point guard Maurice Watson, Jr. -- depart from and return to the lineup due to injury and suspensions. So, it's not surprising to see their consistency rating (.590) creep above the halfway mark to date.
In spite of all their troubles, the Bluejays worked their way to a 25-9 record (10-8 in the Big East) and a ranking of 27 in our power rankings. Their outstanding pace (top 30 in the nation) has played a substantial part in their success.
Under head coach Greg McDermott, Creighton put up 82.1 points per game on 50.8% shooting and an adjusted offensive rating of 117.31. While they have given up 72.5 points per game, the Bluejays are much better when adjusted for pace and opponent -- their 91.05 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions places them among the nation's elite.
They're a scary 6 seed and will be part of an intriguing opening round game with the Rhode Island Rams.
2. UCLA Bruins (3 Seed, South Region)
Percentile Rank: .963
The UCLA Bruins are a similar build to that of Oklahoma State -- they just operate at an even higher pace and have much better (and more notable) talent.
With Lonzo Ball running the show, the Bruins are the nation's third-best offense, according to their adjusted offensive rating of 123.76. They lead the nation in assists (709) and field goal percentage (51.9%), along with ranking eighth in three-point percentage (40.5%).
If that wasn't enough for you to surmise that UCLA has had a great season, let me tell you that their elite offense has led to 29 wins and the 14th overall spot in our rankings. Is there any chink in the armor that I've laid out, though?
It appears that defense could be an issue -- or is it? The Bruins are allowing 75.3 points per game, but an adjusted defensive rating of 94.96 (tied for 64th in the nation) tells a different story. For a team so great offensively, they're respectable enough defensively.
Meanwhile, their consistency (.557) is nowhere near great, so if a team like Kent State -- UCLA's first opponent -- can get them on an off night, who knows what could happen.
1. Kentucky Wildcats (2 Seed, South Region)
Percentile Rank: .968
At number three in our rankings, the numbers tell us the Kentucky Wildcats are the best and most well-rounded team among these five. While they rate 11th in the nation in pace with an average of 74.9 possessions per 40 minutes, head coach John Calipari's crew is 12th in adjusted offensive rating and 13th in adjusted defensive rating. Their adjusted net rating of 33.4 is seventh among all NCAA teams.
The one big thing that should scare you away from penciling Kentucky in as Tournament champs is their youth and associated lack of consistency. In the face of 28 wins and four top-25 wins, the Wildcats have a consistency of .738, telling us their performance is sporadic from game to game. We've seen this lately in UK's close wins over unranked SEC foes.