Nothing makes March Madness more exciting than an awesome Cinderella story.
Everyone loves the underdog, and as sports fans, we love seeing the unexpected happen. There have been 32 instances where a team seeded 11 or higher won their first-round game in the last five tournaments. Of those 32, 9 have reached the Sweet 16.
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Rhode Island Rams have potential to not only pull off one upset, but even making a run to the Sweet 16.
The Rams started the season strong, reaching as high as 21st in the AP Poll. They have three wins against teams in the Tournament, including one over the Cincinnati Bearcats. They also lost to the Duke Blue Devils by just 10 points in late-November.
Rhode Island is a defensively-minded club, ranking 35th or better -- out of 351 teams -- in both points allowed and defensive rating. Their perimeter pressure limited opponents to just 29.0% on three-point shots, matching strength versus strength with their first-round opponent, the Creighton Bluejays.
The Rams own a nERD rating -- or the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral court -- of 10.66, putting them 42nd in our power rankings. The Bluejays, on the other hand, are not miles better than the Rams, owning a 14.16 nERD (good for the 27th spot in our ranks). Our game projections view the matchup as virtual toss up, giving the Rams a 45.9% probability of pulling off the upset.
If they advance, they will likely face an Oregon Ducks squad who could be ripe for the picking since they recently lost one of their best players.
Wichita State
Picking a 10 seed to defeat a 7 is not Cinderella-worthy. Projecting them to knock off a 2 seed and reach the Sweet 16 or further would qualify, though.
Last year, the Syracuse Orange, a 10 seed, went all the way to the Final Four. The Wichita State Shockers are looking to duplicate their success.
A 30-win team who is riding a 15-game winning streak, the Shockers are wildly underseeded in this year's bracket. Our algorithms have them pegged as the 10th-best team in the nation with a 17.27 nERD rating, not as the 10th-best team in their region.
Wichita State, simply put, has a juggernaut defense, owners of the nation's third-best defensive rating. Even when you adjust their rating based on strength of schedule, they only fall to eighth. Opponents shot just 37.8% from the field, the fifth-best mark in the nation. They aren't a one-sided team, either.
By posting an average of 82.1 points per game, they don't just suffocate their opponent, but beat them into submission with a three-point barrage. The Shockers make 40.7% of their long range attempts, the second-highest rate of any Tournament team.
Our game projections have them as a 65.6% favorite over the 7 seed Dayton Flyers in the first round. While a potential matchup in the Round of 32 with SEC Champion Kentucky Wildcats is not ideal, they're only separated by 2.45 in nERD rating, meaning the Shockers have a great shot of busting many brackets with a trip to the Sweet 16.
Middle Tennessee
Pulling off upsets is an old trick for the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. They knocked off 2 seed Michigan State last year as a 15 seed. The Blue Raiders are seeded a bit higher this year, but land in one of those juicy 5-12 matchups that are always ripe for upsets.
Middle Tennessee returned their top two scorers from last year's' Cinderella club in Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw while adding Jacorey Williams -- a transfer from Arkansas who ended up leading the team in scoring this season with 17.3 points per game.
Since the calendar flipped to 2017, the Blue Raiders have lost just once, winning 20 of their last 21 games. They dominated Conference USA behind a balanced team that ranked in the 90th percentile in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They finished with the first 30-win season in school history and ended up 54th in our power rankings with a 9.41 nERD rating.
Their opponent on Thursday was not that much better -- the Minnesota Golden Gophers own a 12.01 nERD rating, just 2.6 points better than the Blue Raiders. Our game projections see the game as a virtual tie, with Minnesota as a 0.4-point favorite.
Xavier
Despite starting the year ranked seventh in the nation, a recent slump slid the Xavier Musketeers down to the bubble of the field of 68, ultimately netting an 11 seed. The loss of their leading assist man to a knee injury shook up their once high-functioning offense, which has come around recently.
In their last four games, the 21-win Musketeers have shown some spark again, winning three of four and knocking off the Butler Bulldogs in the Big East Conference Tournament. Xavier has the experience and the talent to beat an evenly matched Maryland Terrapins squad in an 11-6 matchup thanks to their leading scorer, Trevon Bluiett.
A junior, Bluiett was a vital part of a team that made it to the Sweet 16 in 2015 and was a 2 seed last season. His explosive scoring ability, as shown by his 40-point game versus Cincinnati, gives Xavier a chance against anyone, especially a game this closely matched.
The Musketeers rank 39th with an 11.04 nERD rating, while Maryland owns just a 10.40 nERD rating and is ranked 5 spots lower than their Big East opponent. Our game projections give Xavier a 42.9% chance of pulling off the upset. A possible matchup with the Florida State Seminoles, who are 9-7 in their last 16 games would be the only other roadblock to a Sweet 16 trip.
East Tennessee State
Picking a 13 seed to win may seem daring, but in the last 9 tournaments, 8 teams to have pulled off the feat -- nearly one per year.
Out of this year's 13 seeds, the East Tennessee State Buccaneers own the highest nERD rating at 8.10 after finishing with a 27-7 record and the 40th-ranked defense in terms of efficiency. Their defense harassed opponents by causing over 15.5 turnovers per game, and they also ranked in the top 35 in both blocks and steals per game.
The offense is also one of the best in the country, making them one of the Tournament's most dangerous teams. Led by T.J. Cromer (19.0 points per game), the Bucs scored nearly 80 points per game while ranking in the top 10 in field goal percentage.
Their first-round matchup with the Florida Gators may look daunting on paper, but keep in mind the Gators have lost three of their last four games and have not been the same team since losing center John Egbunu to a knee injury a month ago. Our game projections give the Buccaneers a 25% shot of being victorious and moving on to the Round of 32.