In a single-elimination tournament, you don't always see the best teams -- the teams that showed they were the best during a larger-sample regular season -- in the finals. Down days happen. Lucky shots happen.
Variance happens.
In the NCAA Tournament specifically, the top teams don't always make it to the Final Four. I'm not just talking about 1 seeds here, either -- we see Cinderella runs because there's inconsistency in a tournament where one loss means you're out.
Fortunately for fans this year, we've got some solid basketball teams remaining in the tournament. And, yes, that includes South Carolina.
Because, of all Final Fours since 2000, this year's grouping is actually above average, despite the fact that there's a 7 seed and a 3 seed remaining.
| Year | Average nERD | Seeds |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 21.18 | 1, 1, 2, 3 |
| 2008 | 20.02 | 1, 1, 1, 1 |
| 2015 | 19.25 | 1, 1, 1, 7 |
| 2005 | 19.25 | 1, 1, 4, 5 |
| 2004 | 18.16 | 1, 2, 2, 3 |
| 2002 | 17.94 | 1, 1, 2, 5 |
| 2017 | 17.82 | 1, 1, 3, 7 |
| 2007 | 17.67 | 1, 1, 2, 2 |
| 2012 | 17.63 | 1, 2, 2, 4 |
| 2009 | 17.46 | 1, 1, 2, 3 |
| 2016 | 17.04 | 1, 2, 2, 10 |
| 2000 | 16.71 | 1, 5, 8, 8 |
| 2013 | 16.54 | 1, 4, 4, 9 |
| 2010 | 16.04 | 1, 2, 5, 5 |
| 2003 | 16.04 | 1, 2, 3, 3 |
| 2014 | 15.69 | 1, 2, 7, 8 |
| 2006 | 14.32 | 2, 3, 4, 11 |
| 2011 | 12.54 | 3, 4, 8, 11 |
For those of you who aren't familiar, nERD is a metric we use here at numberFire to determine the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average one on a neutral court. The average nERD among Final Four teams this year is 17.82, which is actually better than what we saw in 2007 when only 1 and 2 seeds were in the Final Four.
Let's hope it translates to some really awesome basketball this weekend.