Since being implemented in 2006, the NCAA ‘one and done’ rule has helped bring parity to college basketball, and even more shocking upsets to the NCAA Tournament. Now it seems that the most talented players depart from school early, resulting in the most talented squads typically lacking experience, while senior-laden teams lack truly elite talent.

Seeing 12 seeds advance has been well documented, including three last season and plenty more since 2008. But did you know that at least one 13 seed has advanced to the NCAA Tournament’s Round of 32 every year since 2008?

Over this span, two 14 seeds have knocked off three seeds, and in the past two tournaments, three number two seeds have fallen to 15 seeds. Even a few one seeds have nearly dropped their first games, as we inch closer to a 16 seed finally advancing to the next round.

Upsets like those listed above are why they call it March Madness, after all, and one of the reasons people love the NCAA Tournament - anything can happen!

We realize the tournament can be unpredictable here at numberFire, so we want to help pinpoint potential upset picks that could make you look like the smartest person in the office. We’ve run our projections and crunched the numbers, so we know which low-seeded teams have a decent shot at getting past their first game in the Big Dance. We aren’t suggesting you take all the lower seeds - check out our optimal bracket if you're looking for who to pick - but keep the numbers in mind when advancing squads deep, as picking brackets can often times be about minimizing risk.