Over the past 16 NCAA Tournaments, there have been 27 instances of a 12 seed upsetting a 5 seed, meaning the 12 seed wins at a clip of 42.19% in that span. Only twice in the past 16 seasons has there been a Big Dance without a 12/5 upset.

Last season, we got just one such game -- 12th-seeded Middle Tennessee knocking off Minnesota, which our metrics had as the most likely 12/5 upset in the 2017 big dance -- but two of the other 12/5 games were decided by a combined seven total points.

We'll probably get at least one 12/5 upset this year, and picking these games correctly can give you a leg up in your pool.

Using our metrics, let's take a look at this year's 12/5 games and see which are most likely to end in a 12 seed winning, ranking them from least to most probable, according to our nERD metric. For those of you who may be new to numberFire, nERD measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average opponent on a neutral court.

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nERD rating for 5 seeds since 2000 is 13.12, and Ohio State owns a nERD of 13.75 -- so they're pretty much seeded right where they should be. The same can't be said for South Dakota State. If we're going by mascots, the Jackrabbits should be a 1 seed, but if we're going by nERD, they should be closer to a 13 seed. Since 2000, the average nERD for a 12 seed is 8.44, and SDSU checks in with a nERD of 7.39, the worst -- by a fairly healthy margin -- of this year's 12 seeds.

The Buckeyes were a surprise team in their first campaign under coach Chris Holtmann, with some prognosticating them for a lowly 12th-place finish in the Big Ten. They exceeded all expectations and went 24-8, doing it with solid all-around play. Per Sports-Reference.com, the Bucks rank in the top 25 in both adjusted offensive rating (21st) and adjusted defensive rating (13th).

South Dakota State is no pushover -- they won the regular-season and tournament titles in the Summit League. The Jackrabbits have four starters who hit at least 38% of their three-point attempts, and the ability to hit three-balls is always a plus when trying to pull an upset. But they rank 152nd in adjusted defensive rating and drew a tough matchup against OSU.

Anything can happen in a one-game scenario, but this is the least likely 12/5 upset, per our numbers.

3 - West Virginia (5) vs. Murray State (12)

Per nERD, West Virginia is the best of the 5 seeds, finishing with a nERD of 14.43, and they're playing Murray State, who is the second-worst 12 seed with a nERD of 7.80. WVU's nERD is more in line with that of the usual 3 or 4 seed.

The Mountaineers are known for their suffocating press -- and they did finish 20th in adjusted defensive rating -- but their offense was pretty darn good as they ranked 12th in adjusted offensive rating. WVU posted a 24-10 record and racked up five wins over Associated Press Top-25 teams, including two victories over a good Texas Tech team over their last five games.

Murray State won the Ohio Valley Conference's regular-season and tourney titles, dominating with a 16-2 record in league play, and they're currently riding a 13-game win streak. Something the Racers have going for them is that they play at a snail's pace, ranking 280th in possessions per game. That's appealing because fewer possessions means more volatility.

But the Racers' strength of schedule is a lowly 266th, and they sit 110th in adjusted defensive rating and 63rd in adjusted offensive rating. West Virginia may just be too much for Murray State.

2 - Kentucky (5) vs. Davidson (12)

Kentucky hasn't had a great season by its lofty standards, but they're still a very good team that's fresh off its fourth straight Southeastern Conference tourney title with a 77-72 win over Tennessee. Coach John Calipari's bunch ranks 21st in adjusted defensive rating and 30th in adjusted offensive rating, and their nERD of 13.76 is roughly what we'd expect from a 5 seed (remember: the average nERD for 5 seeds since 2000 is 13.12).

But UK has a really intriguing matchup with a good Davidson squad, one which checks a lot of boxes when it comes to the profile of a Cinderella team.

Davidson's nERD of 9.11 is right in line with the average nERD of 12 seeds since 2000 (8.44), so they're not under-seeded by any stretch, but they are the best 12 seed this year going by our numbers. They boast a very good offense (14th in adjusted offensive rating) and can get hot from deep as all seven of their key rotation players shoot at least 37.0% from beyond the arc, propeling Davidson to a team-wide 39.3% clip from 3.

And it's not just that Davidson can hit treys at a good rate -- they shoot a bunch of them, averaging 27.6 three-point tries per game with the nation's sixth-highest three-point attempt rate (48.6%). Kentucky, on the other hand, sits 306th in three-point attempt rate, so it's certainly a clash of styles.

In addition to that, Davidson also has a slow pace in their corner as they rank 335th (out of 351 teams) in possessions per game. When you add superb three-point shooting to a slow pace, you have the ingredients for a lot of variance. One more thing: Davidson is probably playing its best ball of the season right now as they've beaten a stout Rhode Island team twice in the past 10 days.

1 - Clemson (5) vs. New Mexico State (12)

Going by our metrics, this is the 12/5 game with the best chance of being an upset as the difference in nERD between Clemson (13.24) and New Mexico State (9.02) is the smallest of these four clashes.

Clemson is a poor man's Virginia in terms of pace and defense. The Tigers are spearheaded by a smothering D, ranking 8th in adjusted defensive rating, and at an average of 69.1 possessions per game, they sit 281st in pace. Redundancy alert -- fewer possessions means more variance. Clemson, per nERD, is the worst 5 seed in the dance, and they are just 7-6 since Donte Grantham, one of their best players, went down with a season-ending injury.

New Mexico State is more than comfortable slowing it down as they average just 71.2 possessions per game, ranking 186th in pace. The Aggies won the regular-season and tourney titles in the Western Athletic Conference, and they own a dope 28-5 record. Like Clemson, NMSU is a defensive-minded bunch as the Aggies are 39th in adjusted defensive rating and 101st in adjusted offensive rating. They have lost just twice since Christmas, a span of 19 games, and they've reeled off six straight wins, five of which came by double digits.