The field is set, and as always, there is plenty of debate to be had. Arguing about the bracket -- which deserving teams got left out or which region is the toughest -- is as much of a March tradition as buzzer beaters, The Masters commercials and 12/5 upsets.
Something we run into each year is a handful of teams getting a worse seed than they deserve.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee seeds teams based on their resumes -- the full body of work a team compiles in terms who it played and who it beat. RPI-driven "team sheets," used by the Selection Committee, place a premium on strength of schedule and quality wins as driving factors when ranking teams for placement in the bracket.
Analytics-based ranking systems, such as our nERD power rankings, KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI, consider many other factors to determine the quality of a team's play. Inevitably these two approaches will diverge in some key areas. Here are the top four teams our rankings peg as the biggest sleepers lurking among the lower-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament.
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nERD metric, but there are some exceptions. Michigan State is a glaring one as we have coach Tom Izzo's bunch as the nation's fifth-best team and they landed a 3 seed.
Per Sports-Reference.com's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics, the Spartans dominate on both ends, ranking sixth in defensive rating and fifth in offensive rating. Sparty also had the fourth-best margin of victory at 16.18 points per game.
MSU's nERD of 17.23 is actually quite a bit better than that of a typical 2 seed as the average nERD of a 2 seed since 2000 is 16.19. Per our numbers, the committee could've made the Spartans a 1 seed and would've made more sense than listing MSU on the 3 line.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
nERD Rank: 9th
Seed: 4
Our nERD metric has Gonzaga as the ninth-best team in the country while the committee gave the Bulldogs a 4 seed. In our nERD rankings, the Zags are one spot ahead of the 1 seed in their region, Xavier. Gonzaga's nERD of 15.64 is better than the average nERD for 3 seeds (14.58) in big dances since 2000, and it's not terribly far away from the average nERD for 2 seeds (16.19).
Gonzaga is 11th in adjusted offensive rating and 23rd in adjusted defensive rating. Yes, they're just 113th in strength of schedule, but they destroyed said schedule with an average margin of victory of 17.38 points, the second-best in the nation.
The Zags have the team and the draw -- the worst 1 seed is in their region -- to make another deep run.
Butler Bulldogs
nERD Rank: 28th
Seed: 10
After making back-to-back Cinderella runs to the title game in 2010 and 2011, it's hard for people to sleep on Butler this time of year, but going by our numbers, the committee did just that. Butler is a top-30 squad according to nERD, but they got stuck with a 10 seed.
Butler's 20-13 record isn't pretty, but six of their losses are by seven points or less and they played the 14th-toughest schedule. The 'Dogs are 31st in adjusted offensive rating and 33rd in adjusted defensive rating. In all, there are 11 teams ranked worse than Butler in nERD who made the big dance and got a 10 seed or better. If you're looking for a double-digit seed who can make a run, the Bulldogs are the best double-digit seed in the field, per nERD -- just be wary of a possible second-round date with Purdue, a team that thumped Butler by 15 earlier this year.
Arizona State Sun Devils
nERD Rank: 32rd
Seed: 11
Arizona State made the tourney and will play Syracuse in an 11/11 play-in game, but nERD has ASU ranked 32nd overall. The Sun Devils are actually seven spots in front of Miami (FL) in our nERD ratings, and the 'Canes got a 6 seed. Arizona State's nERD is 11.01, and the average nERD for an 11 seed since 2000 is 9.61. Not only are they're significantly better than the average 11 seed, they could be as high as an 8 without raising too many eyebrows as the average nERD for an 8 seed is 11.26.
ASU is led by its offense, checking in 19th in adjusted offensive rating, but they aren't exactly entering the big dance on a high. The Sun Devils have lost five of their last six, although four of those defeats came by a combined 19 points. ASU owns two wins over 1 seeds, getting a 16-point neutral-court victory over Xavier and winning at Kansas by 10.
While their recent form isn't anything to write home about, the Sun Devils' full body of work merited better than an 11 seed.