Everyone wants to pick a perfect March Madness bracket. That's nearly impossible, of course, so picking some sweet upsets is basically the next best thing to nailing the Final Four.

That leads us to the mid-majors, teams not playing in the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, Big East, American, Atlantic 10, or Mountain West conferences.

Do any such teams have a chance to bust brackets? Of course. And these are the most likely teams to do so.

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Gonzaga Bulldogs have lost some of their luster by now, as they're no longer a secret and haven't been for a while. However, playing out of the West Coast Conference, they are still a mid-major.

They finished ninth in our power rankings this season but drew the 4 seed in the West region. That pits them against North Carolina-Greensboro Spartans. We project Gonzaga to win that game nearly 92% of the time. Against the Ohio State Buckeyes, we'd give Gonzaga a 60% chance, and against South Dakota State Jackrabbits (OSU's first-round foe), Gonzaga would be 87% favorites.

Gonzaga faced just the 114th-ranked schedule this year but managed the 9th-best offense and 23rd-best offense when adjusted for opponent. They're no slouch and are top-six in two-point field goal percentage both for and against. They enter the NCAA Tournament 20-1 over their final 21 games and 30-4 overall.

New Mexico State Aggies

The New Mexico State Aggies, 46th in our power rankings, represent the Western Athletic Conference and drew the 12 seed in the Midwest region. They'll have to get through Clemson in the 5-versus-12 matchup to disrupt brackets. Our algorithms give them just a 27.2% chance to knock off the Tigers, but Clemson enters just 3-5 in their past eight games, though that includes some tough opponents.

The Aggies' offense ranks 101st in the nation, but their defense is 39th. They hold opponents to the 6th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country and grab defensive rebounds at the 14th-highest rate. Clemson's offense is barely top 50, though (they're 48th in adjusted offensive rating). All signs indicate this being a slow, defensive-minded game, a matchup that could go either way.

New Mexico State has bested both the Davidson Wildcats and Miami Hurricanes on a neutral court back in December, so they have some solid wins on their resume, despite the 165th-ranked schedule.

With a win, they'd face either Auburn Tigers (and have a 21.9% chance to reach the Sweet 16) or the College of Charleston Cougars (80.8%).

Don't simply pencil in Clemson with senior forwards Zach Lofton and Jemerrio Jones lurking in the Round of 64.

Loyola Chicago

Out of the Missouri Valley Conference comes the Loyola Chicago Ramblers, the 11 seed in the South Region and the 43rd-ranked team by our power rankings. They have a 43.7% chance to knock off the Miami (FL) Hurricanes, via our algorithm.

The Ramblers rank 79th in adjusted offense and 54th in adjusted defense but haven't really been challenged, evidenced by the 141st-ranked schedule difficulty in the country. They lost at Boise State in late November but beat Florida by six on the road a week later.

So how do the Ramblers have a good chance to advance? They possess the 8th-best effective field goal percentage, thanks to ranking 13th in three-point percentage (40.0%) and 14th in two-point percentage (56.5%). Other than that, they struggle in the other Four Factors (205th in turnover rate at 18.8%, 331st in offensive rebounding rate at 22.1%, and 182nd in free throw attempts per field goal attempt at 0.332).

Defensively, they're top-80 in all four of those categories and avoid giving up free throw attempts (0.257 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, 22nd-best in the country).

They're 17-2 since the calendar flipped to 2018 and would have a 22.1% chance to topple the Tennessee Volunteers in the Round of 32 if they make it there. Don't sleep on the Ramblers.

Others to Watch

Based on our stage odds, no other mid-major has even a 20% chance to reach the Round of 32 or a 5% chance to reach the Sweet 16. Few mid-majors landed good draws, and only Gonzaga earned better than Loyola's 11 seed. So you don't want to get crazy by loading up on these teams in your brackets.

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits rank 51st in our power rankings and have an 18.5% chance to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes. South Dakota State's offense runs through junior center Mike Daum. The Jackrabbits possess the lowest turnover rate in the nation but cause turnovers at the 347th-lowest rate out of 351 schools in the country. If they beat Ohio State, they'd most likely face Gonzaga in the Round of 32.

The Murray State Racers, 47th in our power rankings, face the West Virginia Mountaineers, owning a 17.6% chance to beat the Mountaineers' press-heavy defense. The Racers are a well-rounded team with 13 straight wins. None are particularly impressive, however, and their schedule ranks 266th in the nation.

Finally, the Buffalo Bulls are good enough to make a run as the 13 seed in the South region. Unfortunately, they have a tough path. They start with the Arizona Wildcats (with a 20.4% chance to win) and then would face either the Kentucky Wildcats (18.8% chance) or the Davidson Wildcats (40.7%).