We can tell you how we'd rank the 1 seeds in this year's NCAA Tournament, but that's somewhat of an irrelevant exercise without context.

Because matchups matter. And potential matchups matter.

The best team in the big dance can hit a stretch of great squads, ruining their championship hopes. Meanwhile, an overseeded school can face a cakewalk path, negating the fact that they were overrated in the first place.

So with that in mind, let's look -- through our nERD metric, which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average one on a neutral court -- at which of the 1 seeds have the scariest, toughest journeys to the Final Four this year.

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Villanova sits -- isn't overly tough. The Wildcats will have arguably the easiest Round of 32 matchup between either Virginia Tech or Alabama, as Virginia Tech is the third-worst 8 seed in this year's dance, according to nERD, while Alabama is the worst 9 seed. Then, in the Sweet 16, Villanova will more than likely face either West Virginia or Wichita State. Though nERD pegs WVU as the best 5 seed in the tournament, it's not by much, and Wichita State is the third-worst 4 seed.

All in all, their path to the Elite Eight could be a lot worse. That's especially true when you consider that neither Wichita State nor West Virginia were strong at defending three-pointers this year, ranking 247th and 295th, respectively, in three-point percentage allowed. Villanova, per usual, ranks in the top-20 in offensive three-point rate.

It's at that point in time where things get a little shaky, and it's only because of Purdue. Per our numbers, the Boilermakers are the second-best 2 seed in this year's tournament, and they come in as a well above-average one historically. Since 2000, 2 seeds have had an average nERD of 16.19. Purdue's is 17.70 this season.

In all, Villanova's path isn't overly difficult, though.

3. Kansas (Midwest Region)

Kansas is stuck in a region with two powerhouse schools in Duke and Michigan State, but if they were to meet them in the tournament, the Jayhawks would meet one, not both. Our metrics say that Duke is the toughest matchup. The Blue Devils have the third-best nERD rating in the country despite being a 2 seed, and they rank as a better team than Kansas.

Getting through Seton Hall or North Carolina State shouldn't be a huge issue for Kansas on paper, and Clemson and Auburn are arguably the worst 4-5 seed punch in this year's tournament when you factor in school history and coaching. (Arizona and Kentucky actually have a lower average nERD rating.)

For Kansas, getting to the Final Four may come down to a big matchup against either Michigan State or Duke. Since they won't have to get through both, their path is a little easier.

2. Virginia (South Region)

What do you give the tournament's top overall seed? A potential matchup against either Arizona or Kentucky in the Sweet 16, of course!

To be fair, our numbers aren't as high on Arizona or Kentucky this season as you may think. The programs are monstrous, and there's a lot of talent on both teams, but Arizona is nERD's worst 4 seed in the big dance, while Kentucky is nERD's second-best 5 seed.

To not recognize coaching and talent when filling out your bracket is a recipe for disaster in the NCAA Tournament, though. We know this. That's why it's difficult to not see either Wildcat team as a threat to Virginia in the Sweet 16.

If Virginia comes away with a W, they may see Cincinnati or Tennessee in the Elite Eight, two better-than-average 2 and 3 seeds. And, my goodness, if Cincinnati is the team to make it that far, we may witness the slowest basketball game in college basketball history.

1. Xavier (West Region)

Xavier is Florida State is slightly more talented than their 9 seed suggests, but compared to our database's history, they're in line with the efficiency we typically see from that seed. Missouri, the 8 seed in the West, is the worst 8 seed in the tournament, according to our numbers.

The reason Xavier ranks as having the second-toughest path to the Final Four is because of what could happen in the Sweet 16. As a 4 seed, Gonzaga has a nERD of 15.64, which is about a point and a half better than the typical 4 seed. Gonzaga actually has the ninth-best nERD in the country. And even if Ohio State knocks off the Bulldogs in the Round of 32, they won't be an easy matchup for Xavier, as they rank as the 17th-best team in the country according to our numbers.

And then let's pretend Xavier makes it past the Sweet 16. All of a sudden, there's the possibility that they face North Carolina, a team that would be favored to win.

Xavier's path isn't about their first and second games. It's about the potential of facing really good teams in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.