It took a while for us to witness some madness on Thursday, but by the end of the day, the NCAA Tournament delivered. We have two double-digit seeds moving on -- one of which few people talked about even having a chance. Arizona being ousted from the tournament could leave you without your champion or a Final Four team in the office bracket pool, but the beauty of March Madness is there are always more games to gamble on.
When these teams get back in action on Saturday, our projects tend to favor the underdogs to cover once again. Using our models as a guide, below are our best bets for Saturday.
Please note that lines are subject to change in the lead-up to Saturday's tip-offs, after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
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(7) Rhode Island Rams vs. (2) Duke Blue Devils
Rhode Island +9.5 (3-star rating out of 5)
In one of the most exhilarating games on Thursday's slate, Rhode Island beat Oklahoma in overtime, and now faces the 2 seed Duke Blue Devils in the Midwest Region. The Rams are in for another offensive battle -- now facing the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation after facing Trae Young in the opener.
Rhode Island's strength offensively comes from inside the arc, so they'll have to find a way to penetrate Duke's zone. Then again, URI got hot from three on Thursday, shooting 40 percent from deep. The Rams are more well-known for their defense this season -- ranking 37th in Kenpom's Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The catalyst for Rhode Island's defense is their ability to turn opponents over, something they do on 20 percent of their possessions, which ranks 9th in the nation.
Duke made quick work of Iona on Thursday without much resistance. While the Gaels kept the game close early, Duke pulled away in the second half to coast to victory. But URI's defense is far tougher than Iona's. Duke hasn't encountered anybody this season who forces turnovers the way the Rams do, which could cause the Blue Devils some headaches.
(11) Loyola (IL) Ramblers vs. (3) Tennessee Volunteers
Over 130 (3-star rating out of 5)
Outside of being one of only two double-digit seeds to win on Thursday, Loyola (IL) also graced us with the only buzzer-beater of the day, beating Miami (FL) in dramatic fashion.
While the Ramblers rank higher in Kenpom's defensive metric than they do on offense, they make the most of their shots -- ranking fourth in the nation in field goal percentage and connecting on a shade under 40 percent of their threes. Loyola continued their steady three-point shooting in Thursday's win -- knocking down 8 of 21 threes, including Donte Ingram's game-winner from the edge of the half-court logo. Four Loyola players scored in double figures on Thursday, which is typical of a Ramblers squad that has five guys averaging between 10.5 and 13.5 points per game. Now, the 11 seed will face a Tennessee team that was in control from start to finish in its first round game.
These two teams are actually very similar -- Tennessee, too, is strong defensively, but can light it up from three. The Vols shoot 38 percent from deep this year and are great at getting to the free throw line. Tennessee ranks 39th in the nation in free throw shooting, shooting 76 percent from the line.
Our projections have the total of this game at a total of 137 points, which is plenty clear of the Vegas line.
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (1) Villanova Wildcats
Alabama +10.5 (2-star rating out of 5)
Alabama played in a real nail-biter on Thursday against Virginia Tech that was hard to flip away from -- even with Arizona getting boat-raced at the same time. The Crimson Tide take on the 1 seed, Villanova, in the first game on the schedule Saturday.
Villanova took care of business Thursday, leaving very little up to chance, but they have certainly had their struggles in the Round of 32 in the past. Of course, that has nothing to do directly with this specific group, but it's in the back of every bettor's mind.
The Wildcats have had some struggles this season when out of rhythm offensively, and the Crimson Tide hold opponents to 32 percent from three -- good for 36th in the nation. This will be a key factor in keeping this game close, if not winning outright. Alabama also leans heavily on getting to the free throw line, which could in turn lead to foul trouble for 'Nova. Freshman phenom Collin Sexton managed to attempt 14 free throws on Thursday en route to 25 points, and if he can put on a similar display, this could be a game to keep an eye on. Our algorithm likes Bama to cover the spread.
(13) Buffalo Bulls vs. (5) Kentucky Wildcats
Buffalo +6 (2-star rating out of 5)
In the most stunning result of Thursday's action, Nate Oats' Buffalo Bulls took down Arizona in dominant fashion to advance to the Round of 32, where they'll face yet another big name program: Kentucky. The Bulls look to continue their Cinderella path to the Sweet 16 by taking out the two teams that prognosticators thought would give Virginia the most trouble in the South Region.
Kentucky comes in having won eight of its last nine, but struggled a bit with Davidson on Thursday. Only a 4.5-point favorite, UK eked out the cover by a half-point -- their eighth time covering in their last nine games as well. Prior to that, Kentucky was 10-16 against the spread this season, and it may be about this time that public perception of Kentucky drives betting lines too high.
That could show in our game projection -- only having Buffalo losing by 2 or 3 points. The Bulls rank 6th in the nation in scoring and have four players averaging at least 15 points per game. If Buffalo can put up a similar effort offensively (55 percent from the floor and 15-30 from three), we could be looking at another upset. Buffalo has also been great against the spread this year, holding an 18-11-3 record and are also 4-1 ATS as an underdog.