numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin +6.5: 1-Star out of 5

Wisconsin and Michigan have both been playing great recently, as the Badgers are on a four-game winning streak and the Wolverines are on a five-game winning streak. The Badgers' strong play goes back even further as they are 12-5 since a rocky 5-5 start.

Wisconsin has some impressive road wins on their resume already, as they beat Kenpom No. 11 Ohio State, No. 21 Penn State and No. 65 Tennessee all away from home earlier this season. Michigan is No. 9 in Kenpom and may provide a slightly tougher test, but our models still like Wisconsin to cover at the fairly large betting line of 6.5.

Overall, we give Wisconsin a 55.89% chance to cover, making this a 1-star bet.

Purdue vs. Indiana

Indiana +7: 2-Stars out of 5

These two teams have been going in opposite directions the past couple of weeks, with Purdue losing their last four and Indiana winning three out of their last four. Even at home, Purdue has slipped a bit, losing their last two at Mackey.

Indiana won their last away game against Kenpom No. 32 Minnesota, and they have also won home games against No. 22 Iowa and No. 21 Penn State. Our computer models project a close Purdue win by a score of 69.19-64.55, and we give Indiana a 57.15% chance to cover, making this a 2-star bet.

Illinois vs. Northwestern

Illinois +6.5: 2-Stars out of 5

Northwestern has been the worst team in the Big Ten all season, and they are in last place in the conference with a 1-15 record. They have held tough at times this season, but the last four games have all been blowout losses by 10-plus points and by an average of slightly more than 19.

Thursday night will not provide a reprieve for the Wildcats as they will face an Illinois team that is in the top 30 in Kenpom and destined for the NCAA Tournament.

We project the Illini to win comfortably by a score of 71.65-61.59, and we give them a 60.33% chance to cover the 6.5-point spread, making this a 2-star bet.