We all want to know which teams have it, which teams are hot entering the NCAA Tournament, and that's what I've set out to find.
Based on recent games, which teams in the field of 68 are playing their best?
But while we're at it, who is playing poorly for a tournament team? Perhaps they shored up an at-large bid earlier in the season and made it despite some iffy play. Or maybe they stole an automatic bid. Which teams are these?
Let's get objective about it.
I'm going to use my adjusted point differential metrics for teams, which adjusts point differentials for opponent strength faced.
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Here is how each of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams stack up over their final 10 games.
| Team | Seed | Region | Past 10 | PPG | PPA | Raw +/- | Adj. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 1 | W | 9-1 | 82.1 | 64.3 | 17.8 | 25.7 |
| Iowa | 5 | M | 9-1 | 83.6 | 69.9 | 13.7 | 24.9 |
| Houston | 5 | S | 9-1 | 74.4 | 60.3 | 14.1 | 21.7 |
| Kansas | 1 | M | 8-2 | 76.1 | 67.8 | 8.3 | 21.6 |
| Texas Tech | 3 | W | 7-3 | 67.5 | 59.8 | 7.7 | 20.2 |
| UCLA | 4 | E | 8-2 | 74.0 | 62.6 | 11.4 | 19.7 |
| Tennessee | 3 | S | 9-1 | 70.3 | 62.1 | 8.2 | 18.9 |
| Arizona | 1 | S | 9-1 | 83.8 | 73.5 | 10.3 | 18.0 |
| Arkansas | 4 | W | 7-3 | 73.2 | 69.9 | 3.3 | 17.9 |
| Baylor | 1 | E | 7-3 | 71.5 | 68.6 | 2.9 | 17.6 |
| Kentucky | 2 | E | 7-3 | 75.4 | 70.6 | 4.8 | 17.3 |
| Memphis | 9 | W | 8-2 | 72.2 | 65.5 | 6.7 | 16.2 |
| San Francisco | 10 | E | 6-4 | 78.6 | 69.4 | 9.2 | 15.7 |
| Duke | 2 | W | 8-2 | 80.0 | 72.5 | 7.5 | 15.6 |
| Auburn | 2 | M | 6-4 | 74.5 | 69.0 | 5.5 | 15.4 |
| Virginia Tech | 11 | E | 8-2 | 70.3 | 63.3 | 7.0 | 15.3 |
| Michigan | 11 | S | 5-5 | 74.4 | 73.2 | 1.2 | 14.7 |
| Loyola Chicago | 10 | S | 7-3 | 72.6 | 61.2 | 11.4 | 14.7 |
| Villanova | 2 | S | 9-1 | 71.7 | 66.3 | 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Notre Dame | 11 | W | 7-3 | 77.8 | 68.9 | 8.9 | 14.6 |
| Saint Mary's (CA) | 5 | E | 7-3 | 69.6 | 65.3 | 4.3 | 14.3 |
| North Carolina | 8 | E | 8-2 | 76.3 | 69.6 | 6.7 | 14.3 |
| San Diego St. | 8 | M | 9-2 | 66.5 | 58.1 | 8.4 | 14.1 |
| Texas | 6 | E | 5-5 | 68.1 | 68.6 | -0.5 | 14.0 |
| Davidson | 10 | W | 7-3 | 72.5 | 61.9 | 10.6 | 13.8 |
| Louisiana St. | 6 | M | 6-4 | 74.4 | 70.2 | 4.2 | 13.4 |
| Rutgers | 11 | W | 6-4 | 68.7 | 67.7 | 1.0 | 13.4 |
| Connecticut | 5 | W | 7-3 | 68.9 | 65.3 | 3.6 | 13.2 |
| Boise St. | 8 | W | 8-2 | 70.4 | 64.6 | 5.8 | 13.2 |
| Illinois | 4 | S | 6-4 | 72.6 | 71.4 | 1.2 | 13.1 |
| Texas Christian | 9 | S | 4-6 | 65.8 | 67.5 | -1.7 | 13.0 |
| Vermont | 13 | W | 9-1 | 76.4 | 55.7 | 20.7 | 12.9 |
| Creighton | 9 | M | 7-3 | 70.5 | 67.0 | 3.5 | 12.9 |
| Alabama | 6 | W | 5-5 | 76.9 | 77.3 | -0.4 | 12.5 |
| Providence | 4 | M | 7-3 | 75.6 | 73.1 | 2.5 | 12.2 |
| Colorado St. | 6 | S | 8-2 | 66.7 | 62.8 | 3.9 | 12.1 |
| Ohio St. | 7 | S | 5-5 | 71.3 | 69.7 | 1.6 | 11.9 |
| Miami FL | 10 | M | 7-3 | 75.4 | 70.5 | 4.9 | 11.7 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | M | 7-3 | 67.7 | 65.4 | 2.3 | 11.2 |
| Murray St. | 7 | E | 10-0 | 73.2 | 59.5 | 13.7 | 10.3 |
| Seton Hall | 8 | S | 7-3 | 66.6 | 64.7 | 1.9 | 10.0 |
| Purdue | 3 | E | 6-4 | 68.5 | 69.0 | -0.5 | 10.0 |
| Indiana | 12 | E | 4-6 | 70.3 | 72.0 | -1.7 | 9.6 |
| South Dakota State | 13 | M | 10-0 | 84.5 | 69.7 | 14.8 | 9.1 |
| Marquette | 9 | E | 4-6 | 74.8 | 75.0 | -0.2 | 8.9 |
| UAB | 12 | S | 8-2 | 79.0 | 70.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| Southern California | 7 | M | 7-4 | 69.8 | 71.5 | -1.6 | 8.0 |
| New Mexico St. | 12 | W | 7-3 | 70.3 | 62.8 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Richmond | 12 | M | 7-3 | 67.5 | 65.3 | 2.2 | 7.9 |
| Michigan St. | 7 | W | 4-6 | 69.1 | 73.6 | -4.5 | 7.8 |
| Georgia St. | 16 | W | 10-0 | 68.8 | 60.0 | 8.8 | 7.2 |
| Saint Peter's | 15 | E | 8-2 | 66.5 | 57.5 | 9.0 | 6.9 |
| Chattanooga | 13 | S | 8-2 | 71.5 | 64.9 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Wyoming | 12 | E | 5-5 | 65.5 | 64.1 | 1.4 | 6.3 |
| Colgate | 14 | M | 10-0 | 77.1 | 63.6 | 13.5 | 5.4 |
| Akron | 13 | E | 8-2 | 71.1 | 62.7 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| Cal St. Fullerton | 15 | W | 8-2 | 68.5 | 62.8 | 5.7 | 4.0 |
| Iowa St. | 11 | M | 4-6 | 60.5 | 67.6 | -7.1 | 3.8 |
| Yale | 14 | E | 8-2 | 69.8 | 64.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 |
| Delaware | 15 | S | 6-4 | 70.0 | 67.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Montana St. | 14 | W | 8-2 | 77.8 | 70.9 | 6.9 | 1.7 |
| Norfolk St. | 16 | E | 9-1 | 74.1 | 62.5 | 11.6 | 1.0 |
| Longwood | 14 | S | 9-1 | 73.9 | 66.5 | 7.4 | 1.0 |
| Wright St. | 16 | S | 7-3 | 74.4 | 68.4 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Bryant | 16 | S | 9-1 | 80.6 | 71.0 | 9.6 | 0.5 |
| Jacksonville St. | 15 | M | 6-4 | 69.8 | 65.6 | 4.2 | -0.8 |
| Texas Southern | 16 | M | 8-2 | 72.0 | 64.6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi | 16 | M | 7-3 | 74.8 | 70.8 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| NCAA Tournament Averages | 493-189 | 72.6 | 66.8 | 5.9 | 11.1 |
Notables
Best Teams
It's no wonder that the leaders in adjusted point differential are just the best overall squads. That includes the four 1 seeds -- the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Kansas Jayhawks, Arizona Wildcats, and Baylor Bears -- all inside the top 10 here.
Others in the top 10:
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Houston Cougars
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
- UCLA Bruins
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Arkansas Razorbacks
Trending Teams
Which teams are better over their past 10 than they were before the close of the season?
These ones (among those with at least a 12 seed):
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8.44)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (7.98)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6.63)
- Creighton Bluejays (4.70)
- Davidson Wildcats (4.61)
- Memphis Tigers (4.14)
- Arkansas Razorbacks (3.27)
- Miami (FL) Hurricanes (3.12)
- Michigan Wolverines (3.05)
- Virginia Tech Hokies (2.76)
Undefeated Teams
Which teams are 10-0 in their past 10?
These ones:
- Murray State Racers
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits
- Colgate Raiders
- Georgia State Panthers
These teams have a 9-1 record in their past 10:
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Arizona Wildcats
- Bryant Bulldogs
- San Diego State Aztecs
- Norfolk State Spartans
- Vermont Catamounts
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Gonzaga Bulldogs
- Villanova Wildcats
- Houston Cougars
- Longwood Lancers
Weakest Single-Digit Seeds
Which single-digit seeds have the lowest adjusted point differential in their past 10?
These ones:
- Michigan State Spartans (7.83)
- Southern California Trojans (8.02)
- Marquette Golden Eagles (8.87)
- Purdue Boilermakers (10.00)
- Seton Hall Pirates (10.04)
- Murray State Racers (10.29)
- Wisconsin Badgers (11.22)
- Miami (FL) Hurricanes (11.73)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (11.90)
- Colorado State Rams (12.08)
Reeling Teams
Which squads have the biggest negative differential between their past 10 differential and their early-season adjusted mark? This isn't to say these teams are bad -- just that they are not playing as strongly as they did during the early part of the season.
These ones:
- Purdue Boilermakers (-12.22)
- Arizona Wildcats (-7.29)
- Auburn Tigers (-6.24)
- Michigan State Spartans (-5.93)
- Kentucky Wildcats (-5.53)
- Southern California Trojans (-5.19)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (-4.90)
- Baylor Bears (-4.61)
- LSU Tigers (-4.54)
- Connecticut Huskies (-4.38)
Losing/Non-Winning Teams
These teams are just 5-5 entering the Big Dance:
- Michigan Wolverines
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Texas Longhorns
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Wyoming Cowboys
These teams are 4-6 entering the tournament:
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs
- Marquette Golden Eagles
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Michigan State Spartans