The 12-5 matchups in the NCAA Tournament are always the public’s favorite to pick upsets. It makes sense -– statistically, over the last 30 years or so, the numbers are very favorable for the numbers 1 through 4 seeds, going from 100% win percentage for 1 seeds to about 80% for 4 seeds in the first round. However, the 5-12 matchup is when the statistics dip significantly -– the 5 seeds have won about 65% of the time, which is about the same percentage as 6 seeds and only slightly higher than 7 seeds.
As you can see, picking the correct 12-5 upsets are key to having a winning bracket. Thankfully, our high-powered computers here at numberFire have already done the hard work, and we can look at good ol' math to gain an edge in picking which 12 seeds can pull the upset on Thursday and Friday.
A quick statistical key and we'll start, beginning with the least likely upset:
ORtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (using adjusted)
DRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (using adjusted)
Tempo: Possessions per 40 minutes
nERD: Our own metric, measuring the number of points a team would be expected to win by against an average opponent on a neutral court.
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underrated this season.In fact, I found that over 85% of teams to make the Final Four have finished the season with a top-10 Pythagorean Rating (Pythagorean Rating courtesy of kenpom.com). Utah, despite being a 5 seed, is one of those teams. They do get one of the tougher 12 seeds in Stephen F. Austin -- their nERD of 9.03 is way higher than Wofford or Wyoming's -- but Utah is in another class this year. If they can get past first-round jitters and avoid losing to the Lumberjacks, they could make a long run in the tournament.
(5) West Virginia versus (12) Buffalo
| ORtg | Rank | DRtg | Rank | Tempo | Rank | nERD | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 111.2 | 33 | 95.4 | 47 | 68.7 | 26 | 12.90 | 21 |
| BUFF | 109.8 | 47 | 98.5 | 94 | 69.3 | 20 | 8.32 | 57 |
And finally we get to our most likely 12-5 upset this year. Both of these teams like to play fast, ranking in the top 30 nationally in terms of possessions per 40 minutes. And they both have top 50 offenses, with a slight edge going to West Virginia.
Our algorithms still have West Virginia winning about 75% of the time, but that's much lower than the other 5 seeds. Buffalo is coming into the tournament after winning their conference tournament over Central Michigan, while West Virginia lost in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 conference tournament to now 3-seeded Baylor.
Despite this game being the most likely upset of the 12-5 games, it's still not likely. Really, the selection committee did a good job in this regard -- last year the Saint Louis and Cincinnati games were much closer in terms of nERD difference between the 5 and 12 seeds. There could still be upsets for sure, but if there was a year to lean more on the 5 seeds and go contrarian, this is definitely the one to do it.