NCAAB premium
Using Vegas to Win in March Madness Daily Fantasy Basketball
Playing DFS during March Madness? Here's how to leverage Vegas' great game projections to win some money.

If you want to be successful in playing DFS during March Madness, you have to learn how to utilize Vegas to your advantage. They have so much money coming in during the next two weekends on bets, so they absolutely have to make sure to get the lines as right as possible for this time of year.

If they put that much time, effort, and money into simulating and predicting the games, it would be quite silly not to use their help to win in daily fantasy.

One of the issues with using Vegas for DFS projection purposes is that Vegas predictions (just total points) don't necessarily correlate perfectly with fantasy points (points, three-pointers, rebounds, assists) in basketball. Conversely, for football and baseball, it definitely does.

So we need a way to use Vegas in basketball but incorporate the other factors of fantasy scoring into it.

Want to know who will surprise, who will bust out, and who will take the tournament? Check out our bracket picks, our game simulator, and more!

DraftKings in this article, by the way –- each team has scored this season. We will then divide that number by their total points (what Vegas projects) to get Fantasy Point per Actual Point (FP/Pt). From there, we can multiply that number by whatever Vegas projects that team to score, and we then have the projected fantasy points for each team, courtesy of Vegas.

Further, we can even use that projection to get individual player projections. For example, if Player X scores, on average, 24% of his team's fantasy points per game, and we already have that number, then bingo -- we've got his projection. Check back before the tournament -- I'll be doing exactly that to give the best DraftKings value plays for the weekend.

Remember that we're measuring fantasy points per actual point here. Baylor is at the top of this list, but they won't necessarily score the most fantasy points. This is very useful to compare teams -- Baylor at 2.07 FP/Pt would be projected to score about the same fantasy points if Vegas projected them for 60 points as Kentucky would be if Vegas projected them for 64 points. Most players will lean Kentucky because Vegas is projected a higher scoring game. Perhaps people will be off a team with a high FP/Pt mark like Baylor in GPPs, and you can get the same "value" for a lower cost or lower ownership.

So without further ado, here’s what each team would score in terms of fantasy points if Vegas projected them for 60 points, a fair median number in college basketball. Obviously, you can use the FP/Pt column to make your own calculations. Also, in the morning before games this weekend, I’ll post a table with Vegas-projected fantasy points for each team, so keep on the lookout for that.

TeamPts3sRebAstDKFPDKFP/GDKFP/PtIf Proj 60…
Baylor229322912934834748.25143.892.0708124.25
Texas224220613104354635.00140.452.0674124.04
Michigan St244425612815825046.25148.422.0648123.89
Buffalo218519312304214450.50139.082.0368122.21
North Carolina272716714366215537.00158.202.0304121.83
Iowa222118112064604509.00140.912.0302121.81
Virginia209116211584134239.00132.472.0273121.64
SMU229113812115124641.75140.662.0261121.56
LSU235818412545024770.50149.082.0231121.39
UAB234118712444904724.50138.962.0182121.09
UC Irvine224021211694704512.25136.732.0144120.86
Georgia218718012174034402.75137.592.0131120.79
Cincinnati199616110953804015.25125.482.0116120.70
San Diego St210117811973604226.25124.302.0115120.69
Harvard18611419993743741.25129.012.0103120.62
Purdue231019111984924641.00140.642.0091120.55
Wyoming209720010254874208.75123.792.0070120.42
Valparaiso230422412454314618.75139.962.0047120.28
UCLA237620512534594733.25143.431.9921119.53
Wichita St223122411384454433.00138.531.9870119.22
Kansas242119812904514809.00141.441.9864119.18
Louisville221518112213744392.75137.271.9832118.99
Coastal Carolina236622113133764681.75141.871.9788118.73
Providence231716111894654581.25138.831.9772118.63
Hampton221618712243504364.50132.261.9695118.17
Oklahoma230221612194004533.75141.681.9695118.17
Xavier250121411845574923.50144.811.9686118.12
Kentucky254718512985005012.00147.411.9678118.07
NC State232321912493834568.25138.431.9665117.99
West Virginia236621311774654641.25145.041.9616117.70
Northeastern233220011274854568.25134.361.9589117.54
Utah230724711174584513.75141.051.9565117.39
Mississippi232420712024114546.50142.081.9563117.38
Gonzaga269024212875615261.25154.741.9559117.35
Davidson247733711145344839.00156.101.9536117.21
Wofford227821511024544444.00130.711.9508117.05
Butler222618411753684338.75135.591.9491116.95
New Mexico St226016011703984399.50133.321.9467116.80
Georgetown219218110894084255.75137.281.9415116.49
Ohio St250222511835094856.75147.171.9411116.47
Villanova259330611705415020.00147.651.9360116.16
Belmont238332110644924611.50144.111.9352116.11
Oregon256924812364844964.00146.001.9323115.94
Iowa St258625711845344995.50151.381.9317115.90
S.F. Austin262225711475875064.75153.481.9316115.90
Dayton225121310414564342.75131.601.9293115.76
North Dakota St206522010743103982.50124.451.9286115.71
BYU284128513105725479.00161.151.9285115.71
Albany209619710773344041.75126.301.9283115.70
St. John's227919511324024394.50137.331.9283115.70
VCU253728312404424891.50139.761.9281115.68
Arkansas265322712165495110.00150.291.9261115.57
Arizona259917212664834992.00146.821.9207115.24
Northern Iowa215724210173944140.25125.461.9194115.17
Maryland229324111573604399.75133.331.9188115.13
Robert Morris227721111034044367.25132.341.9180115.08
Manhattan223620910244454288.00134.001.9177115.06
North Florida257430811774914935.75145.171.9175115.05
Duke266025012325125093.00154.331.9147114.88
Indiana255730811874634889.25148.161.9121114.73
Texas Southern231818011743704430.50130.311.9113114.68
Oklahoma St208721610083553987.50128.631.9106114.64
Boise St233529110863994436.50134.441.9000114.00
Wisconsin244423711454324641.75136.521.8992113.95
Lafayette23742579924994491.00140.341.8917113.50
Georgia St237516310814504482.75135.841.8875113.25
Notre Dame268028111145144984.00146.591.8597111.58
Ea. Washington274633511554485029.25147.921.8315109.89

To read all premium content, upgrade to a Premium account at numberFire

Related News

The 5 Most Underrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament

JJ Zachariason  --  Mar 17th, 2015

The 5 Most Overrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament

Brandon Gdula  --  Mar 17th, 2015

The Fastest and Slowest Teams in the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Brandon Gdula  --  Mar 17th, 2015