Surprise! The Kentucky Wildcats are the odds-on favorite to win the national championship. In fact, after the brackets were revealed Sunday night, the Wildcats opened up at even odds to win this year's big dance.
Kentucky is no longer at even odds. Now that the dust has settled, the Wildcats have fallen to 11-10 odds -- what a drop.
Regardless of their Vegas odds, Kentucky is the undisputed favorite to win it all, and our numbers agree.
According to our handy dandy NCAA March Madness Game Simulator, no team has better than a 33.9% chance to beat the undefeated Wildcats. Needless to say, that includes the Wildcats' first-round matchup with the 16 seed Hampton Pirates.
The Pirates have just a 0.12% chance to best the Wildcats in the Round of 64 and, conservatively, they might lose by 30 points.
We all could have guessed that, but which teams have the best chances of knocking off Kentucky in the tournament? And why?
Want to know who will surprise, who will bust out, and who will take the tournament? Check out our bracket picks, our game simulator, and more!
KenPom.com)Their differences come in their respective styles of play. Kentucky has a relatively slow style of play, as they rank 252nd in Adjusted Tempo, while Arizona is 86th in the nation and tends to get up and down the court from time to time. If Arizona can turn the tempo up enough to make Kentucky's bigs uncomfortable, it should be to their advantage. It would still be an uphill battle, but with their NBA size, Arizona has the best chance as anyone to take down Kentucky.
Wisconsin Badgers
Chances Against Kentucky: 33.51%
Standing in the way of the aforementioned Kentucky-Arizona matchup are the Wisconsin Badgers. If Wisconsin, the 1 seed in the West, can hold off Arizona, they could meet Kentucky in the Final Four. Coincidentally, Wisconsin is the only other team with a 33% chance of keeping Kentucky from its true undefeated season. It's no surprise why. Wisconsin is third in our power rankings -- just behind Kentucky and Arizona at one and two.
Like Arizona and Kentucky, Wisconsin and Kentucky are pretty similar teams, according to the numbers. Wisconsin is in the 92nd percentile in defensive efficiency and the 99th percentile in offensive efficiency. Kentucky has the edge defensively, but Wisconsin is even more efficient than the Wildcats when it comes to offensive execution. In contrast to Arizona, however, Wisconsin would be best served slowing the game down and making it as much of a half court game as possible. They play at the seventh-slowest pace in all the land, but that could allow Kentucky to gear up defensively.
Could Frank Kaminsky carry the Badgers to an upset win?
Villanova Wildcats
Chances Against Kentucky: 29.57%
Villanova, another team of Wildcats, doesn't quite have a 30% chance to beat Kentucky, but they have some things going for them. Villanova is two spots ahead of Kentucky in our offensive rankings and is just ahead of Kentucky (fifth) in Adjusted Offensive Rating. Like Kentucky, Villanova plays unselfish team offense and can come at you from different areas of the court. They might have the maturity to do some much needed scoring against Kentucky's elite defense, but could they stop their offense?
Kentucky's Adjusted Offensive Rating of 119.9 is much greater than Villanova's Adjusted Defensive Rating of 92.2. I'm not sure if Villanova's defense is good enough to compete with Kentucky's size offensively. Nova hasn't faced many teams like the undefeated Wildcats this season. Villanova's opponents' averaged an Adjusted Offensive Rating of 105.2, so they'd see a big jump in offensive skill and efficiency if they make it to the national championship -- the only way they could meet their fellow Wildcats.
Duke Blue Devils
Chances Against Kentucky: 24.70%
Many people think Duke and Jahlil Okafor are the biggest threat to Kentucky's run to the national title, but they're not. They're just the fourth-best threat to the Wildcats, and wouldn't face them until the national championship game itself. At that, it might not be a good matchup for the Blue Devils, as they rank just 56th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Rating, and Okafor struggles with foul trouble. But, if Duke can play some solid defense and Okafor can stay away from bad fouls, they could have a good shot.
Duke's offense is second in the nation, according to our numbers, and boast the third-ranked attack in terms of Adjusted Offensive Rating (121.9). Okafor's a big part of that, and he could put either Cauley-Stein or Towns in foul trouble with some good moves down low. I'm not sure if that would be enough still -- Kentucky has two more big men on the bench more than capable of defending at a high level.
Virginia Cavaliers
Chances Against Kentucky: 24.66%
Compared to teams like Duke, Wisconsin and Arizona, Virginia isn't talked about all too much when it comes to teams that could halt the Wildcats' impressive run. That might be, in large part, due to the fact that the Cavaliers have struggled offensively on numerous occasions this year. It might also be a product of Justin Anderson's injury and lack of productivity since returning from it. Both of these are valid points, but Virginia shouldn't be overlooked. If Anderson gets right over the next week and they take care of business early in the East, Virginia could prove a formidable opponent for John Calipari's boys.
Virginia's offense is very efficient (90th percentile) and they're not afraid to take a quality shot at the end of the shot clock. Even if their offense isn't clicking on all cylinders, the Hoos could force Kentucky into a long, slow-paced and tight game. The Cavaliers operate at the third-slowest pace in the nation and possess the best Adjusted Defensive Rating -- even better than Kentucky. If the two meet in the national championship, it would surely be a great defensive battle.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Chances Against Kentucky: 23.83%
The Zags are another team, and possible Kentucky challenger, that has fallen between the cracks. Yeah, they're used to playing softer competition in the West Coast Conference. Yeah, they've had some inconsistencies over the past few weeks. I look at one regular season game, at Arizona, to tell me just how good the Zags are though. Gonzaga took Arizona to overtime where they ultimately lost by three points...on the road.
They're more than capable of competing with the top teams.
All that being said, they have just under a 24% chance of winning a possible matchup with the Cats, but they could still be a problem for Kentucky. They're an above average defensive team, ranking 21st in Adjusted Defensive Rating, and they're an elite offensive team. According to our numbers, they're the single most efficient team in the country even at a relatively slow pace. Size might be the best thing they have going for them though -- the Zags have three key players 6'10" or taller and have some strong, sizable guards. Without a doubt, it would be an interesting title game matchup.