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But he's not the only one. The inside numbers of our team rankings chart, No. 131 overall.
In comparison, that places Florida's consistency way above their peers, especially their fellow three seeds. Marquette's consistency is in the 46th percentile, No. 179 overall. Michigan State is worse, sitting in the 33rd percentile at No. 226. And New Mexico, whose 9.60 standard deviation is the 16th-lowest in all of Division I, has a consistency score at No. 332, proving them to be very unlikely to snag upsets.
Follow the Yellow-Brick Road
The West and Midwest regions are seen as the Groups of Death this particular time around. The South, where Florida is located, is seen more as the AL Central; not exactly the most difficult place to take over. And the analytics say that, for once, the public perception is correct.
In the first round, Florida plays Northwestern State. Northwestern State may have the quickest pace in the country, but they score seven less points per 100 possessions than Florida and allow ten more. I'll call that one a win. Then, Florida plays UCLA or Minnesota, both of whom are outside the top 100 Division I teams in terms of defensive efficiency. The Gators' likely competitors in the regional semifinals would be Georgetown, whose No. 9 defense is scary but whose No. 122 offense and No. 245 consistency rating is not. Finally, Florida would battle Kansas, who may sit No. 25 in offense and No. 13 in defense, but is only No. 219 in consistency.
The Verdict
Will Florida be a favorite in all of those games? No, public perception doesn't see them that way. Especially from the Sweet 16 on, they will likely be considered underdogs. Statistically, however, the Florida Gators match up well against any team in the country.
Their slow pace (No. 304 in the country at 62.1 possessions per 40 minutes) may be a cause for concern against teams that try and push the tempo, such as Ole Miss in the SEC Championship. But among likely opponents, only Northwestern State and UCLA have tempos in the top 100 of NCAA teams. In fact, potential Sweet 16 opponent Georgetown is even slower at 61.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
For the full breakdown of how far we expect Florida to go, you will need to check out the premium section of our March Madness Helper. But I'll just say here that we like them. We're with Nate Silver, and it's worth checking out to see how much.