numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio vs. Nevada
Game Total Over 58.5 Total Points: 3 Stars out of 5
Ohio has one of the better offenses in college football this season, averaging a total of 34.1 points per game, which is good enough for 19th best in the nation. The Bobcats' offense has taken off the past two weeks, with 66 and 52 points scored in their last two games. Our models project them to continue to produce a high output offensively, with 39.09 projected points scored in this clash.
Nevada are not a strong offensive team, with only 21.5 points scored per game, but they face a mediocre Ohio defense that has conceded 20 points or more in every single game they have played this year. Our models project that trend to continue into the bowl season, with the Wolfpack projected for a total of 23.92 points.
Overall, we predict 63.01 points in this matchup, which is almost 5 points more than the installed game total. We predict a 62.36% likelihood of the over hitting in this game, making it a three-star bet.
Ohio to Cover -8: 3 Stars out of 5
As mentioned above, this game appears to be a mismatch in Ohio’s favor. Ohio’s offense has elite scoring potential, and they face a Nevada defense that is allowing 33.8 points per contest. Our models project that matchup to cause major problems for the Wolfpack, with the Bobcats projected for just under 40 points (39.09).
The Wolfpack do not have the offensive firepower to compete if Ohio is going to score close to 40 points. The Wolfpack have scored 21 points or fewer in seven of their 12 games so far this season, and they have put up 40 points in a game just once the entire year. Our models project 23.92 points for Nevada, which would be a 15.17-point margin of defeat going by our numbers.
We give Ohio a 65.27% chance to cover the spread of 8.0 points, so it is a slightly stronger three-star bet than the over is if you are looking for something to bet on for Friday.