numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
UAB vs. South Alabama
South Alabama +6.5: 2 Stars out of 5
South Alabama to win +235: 1 Star out of 5
South Alabama is 1-1 on the season with an impressive 11-point victory over Southern Mississippi on their resume. They followed up that win with heartbreaking three-point loss to Tulane.
South Alabama has been dealing with some quarterback injuries, as their original starter, Desmond Trotter, has missed some time with a shoulder injury. However, backup Chance Lovertich has been impressive in his part-time work, going 20 of 32 with 311 yards 3 touchdowns and no picks. The Jaguars' quarterback situation is worth monitoring, but their backup has proven to be more than capable thus far.
UAB has been mediocre, at best, this season. They opened up against FCS opponent Central Arkansas and scrapped out only a modest 45-35 victory. They followed that up with a 31-14 loss to the Miami (FL) Hurricanes, making UAB 0-2 against the spread to start the season.
Our models predict a UAB victory but by a scoreline of 26.22-20.7. We give South Alabama a 60.16% chance to cover the spread of 6.5, making this a two-star bet. We also give South Alabama a 31.57% chance to win outright, so we like the moneyline value at +235, projecting a 5.8% return.