numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tulane Green Wave vs. Houston Cougars
Tulane +6.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Tulane to win +198: 4 Stars out of 5
Tulane is off to a good start this season, winning two of their first three games, including a 66-24 victory in their last game against Southern Mississippi.
The Green Wave have run the ball with absolutely no issue, with their top three rushers all averaging at least seven yards per carry. This should bode well for them, as Houston was 89th (out of 130) in rushing defense last year, so they should have plenty of room to run.
Houston was a poor football team last season, finishing 4-8, including a seven-point loss to Tulane. Plus, they will be playing in their first game of the season due to COVID cancellations, so they have a new group of players trying to mesh together in a real game situation for the first time.
Our models love Tulane in this game, giving them a 59.8% chance to win outright despite being a 6.5-point underdog. We have the Green Wave winning by a projected final score of 31.08-28.24, and we give Tulane a 75.63% chance to cover the spread.
We love Tulane at both the spread and moneyline, but a moneyline bet is potentially more lucrative, as the odds of a Tulane win are almost 2-1, while we have them favored to win outright by almost three points. There are certainly unknowns about Houston given that they have yet to play this season, but our projections sway heavily in favor of the Green Wave.