numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida International
FAU -9.5: 1 Star out of 5
FAU moneyline -420: 3 Stars out of 5
Florida Atlantic is off to a 3-1 start this season despite facing several postponements due to COVID. The Owls are 3-1 on the year with their only loss coming against undefeated and currently 16th-ranked Marshall. Even their defeat to Marshall was competitive (20-9), and all three of their wins have come in the conference.
Florida International has faced similar difficulties with COVID postponements, and they have struggled this season. Off to an 0-3 start, the Panthers have lost all three of their games by fewer than 10 points.
Our projections like FAU in this game by a final of 26.14-13.51. We give FAU an 85.4% chance to win outright and a 54.62% chance to cover the spread of 9.5. We like the moneyline as our best bet for the game, and we list that as a three-star wager.
Iowa vs. Minnesota
Iowa -3.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Iowa moneyline -178: 4 Stars out of 5
The Big Ten football season has been off to a crazy start with several surprising results so far. Minnesota was projected as one of the top teams in the league coming into the year, but they were blown out by Michigan, lost in overtime to Maryland and then dominated against a COVID-ridden Illinois team last week.
Iowa has been somewhat disappointing, as well, but they have fared better overall, with close losses to Purdue and Illinois followed by a blowout win over Michigan State last week.
Our projections like Iowa to win this game fairly easily by a final score of 32.22-23.75, and we give them a 76.6% chance to win outright. We also give Iowa a 60.5% chance to cover the spread, so we have both as good plays for Friday night.
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Cincinnati -27.5: 5 Stars out of 5
This game projects to be a complete mismatch. Cincinnati has been rolling through their competition this season, and they project to be possible College Football Playoff contender. The Bearcats have started the year 6-0, and every victory has come by at least two touchdowns. They are hitting their stride even more so recently, having won each of their last three games by at least four touchdowns.
On the flip side, East Carolina is having a horrible season, as they are 1-5. Three of the five losses for the Pirates have come by at least three scores, so they have not been competitive in a lot of their games this season. This matchup with Cincinnati will be by far ECU's toughest of the season, and there is no reason to believe they have a chance to win.
Our models have the final score as 47.84-13.12 in favor of Cincinnati. Overall, we give them a 76.26% chance to cover the spread, making it a five-star bet and our best bet for Friday night.