numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas

Louisiana Tech +1.5: 2 Stars out of 5

Louisiana Tech is listed as a slight underdog in this contest despite getting off to a decent start this season at 4-3 (3-2 in conference games). In fact, two of LA Tech’s losses came against top 20 unbeatens in Marshall and BYU, while their only other defeat was by just one point on the road to UTSA.

North Texas is just 3-4 on the year (2-3 in conference games), and they have not faced the same quality of opponents La Tech has, having not faced any ranked foes. They are coming off a 49-17 blowout loss to UTSA, a team that beat just La Tech by one point.

Our model gives La Tech a 58.54% chance to cover, and we actually give them the slight edge to win outright by a projected score of 34.39-32.52. This will likely be a tight contest, but we like the Bulldogs on Thursday night.

Air Force vs. Utah State

Air Force -11.5: 3 Stars out of 5

Air Force is only 2-2 after having several COVID cancellations early this season, and they have been up and down throughout the year. The Falcons dominated Navy 40-7 but followed it up with disappointing performances against San Jose State and Boise State before bouncing back to beat New Mexico 28-0 in their last game.

Utah State has been poor all season at 1-4, although they did defeat New Mexico, as well, by a score of 41-27. The Aggies have struggled in the passing game with their star passer Jordan Love going to the NFL, and they have had only one game with more than 150 yards passing.

Our model projects a fairly easy Falcons win by a score of 33.86-17.38, and we give Air Force a 62.52% chance to cover the 11.5-point spread.