numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Houston vs. Tulsa
Tulsa -4.5: 1 Star out of 5
Tulsa is only 1-3 this season, but they have played fairly well against a highly competitive schedule. Tulsa lost to UC Davis (FCS), Oklahoma State and Ohio State to start the year, and while the UC Davis loss was disappointing, the Golden Hurricanes performed well against both Oklahoma State and Ohio State.
Tulsa lost 28-23 to Oklahoma State, and they were within a touchdown of the Buckeyes until the final minute of the third quarter. Tulsa certainly showed they are a quality Group-of-Five team. They followed up those close losses with a 41-34 win over Arkansas State.
Houston is 3-1 to start the season, but their victories have come against Grambling State (FCS), Rice (0-3 vs. FBS) and Navy (0-3), so they have not defeated any quality opponents. The Cougars also lost to Texas Tech by 17 in their only matchup against a Power-Five foe.
Our model likes Tulsa to win 29.33-22.39, and we give them a 56.0% chance to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Iowa vs. Maryland
Iowa -3.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Iowa and Maryland are both a perfect 4-0 to start the season, and they look on track to have great years.
Iowa has played extremely well defensively, allowing only 11 points per game so far this season. The Hawkeyes defeated Indiana and Iowa State to start the season, and both were ranked at the time of those victories, although each has since fallen out of the top 25. Iowa also beat Kent State and Colorado State the last two weeks, and all their wins have been by at least 10 points.
On the other side, Maryland has notched wins over West Virginia, Howard, Illinois and Kent State. The Terps had close victories against both of their Power-Five opponents (sx-point win versus West Virginia and a three-point win over Illinois), so they have not been quite as dominant as the Hawkeyes have been.
We project Iowa to win fairly easily, forecasting a 31.70-20.04 final score, and we give the Hawkeyes a 69.3% chance to cover as 3.5-point favorites.
BYU vs. Utah State
Under 61.5: 2 Stars out of 5
The total is 61.5 points despite the fact that Brigham Young has been winning with defense through their first four games.
BYU is allowing just 19.3 points per game, and they have faced good competition, including three Power-Five opponents in Arizona, Utah and Arizona State. BYU held each of them to 17 points or fewer, and they are ranked 13th in the country on the back of their D. The Cougars have been solid offensively, too, averaging 28 points per game.
Utah State had offensive outbursts of 48 and 49 points against North Dakota (FCS) and Air Force, but they put up only 23 against Washington State and then 3 points versus Boise State. BYU's defense should give Utat State fits.
Our algorithm likes the under, giving it a 58.5% chance to hit as we project only 14.64 points for the Aggies.