numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Western Kentucky vs UTSA
Western Kentucky -142: 3 Stars out of 5
Texas-San Antonio had an amazing season and started 11-0 before a disappointing 45-23 loss to North Texas in the regular season finale last weekend. However, the Roadrunners have faced a relatively easy schedule and they have won five games by one score or less.UTSA is 7-1 in the conference, including a 52-46 victory against Western Kentucky earlier this season.
Western Kentucky is 8-4 this season and 7-1 in the conference, which matches USTA’s conference record. The Hilltoppers are on a seven-game winning streak and they have won every game by at least 15 points during this run. They seem to be a good team peaking at the right time which could set them up with a conference title.
Our model projects a 41.47-35.74 victory for Western Kentucky and we give them a 69.1% chance to win the game. We like Western Kentucky moneyline as a 3-star betting opportunity for Friday.
Oregon vs Utah
Utah -2.5: 1 Star out of 5
Oregon has had a great season and they finished the regular season 10-2 but one of their losses was a 38-7 blowout at the hands of Utah. The Ducks finished 7-2 in the conference to earn their way into the title game.
Utah finished the season 9-3 overall with tough non-conference away losses to Brigham Young and San Diego State (triple overtime). They finished 8-1 in the conference and they won eight out of their last nine games.
Our model gives Utah a slight edge in this one, predicting a 28.95-25.52 final. We give the Utes a 55.76% chance to cover the 2.5-point spread making this a 1-star bet.