A rematch for all the glory. Two dominant showings by the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs on New Year's Eve put the powerhouses in a rematch of this season's SEC Championship game for the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship. Will the Tide sweep both meetings, or can the Dawgs exact their revenge when it matters most?
For those unfamiliar, single-game college football slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, roster construction instead features an "MVP" slot accompanied by four flex slots. The MVP receives 1.5-times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial to balance floor and ceiling for optimal lineup builds.
With that in mind, let's preview the single-game slate between Alabama and Georgia on FanDuel.
Game Environment and Market Shares
Alabama defeated Georgia 41-24 back on December 4th, so we've seen these two teams play.
Even with that in mind, though, Georgia is a 2.5-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook over Alabama in the rematch. The total sits at a sporty 52.5 points considering both of these defenses were top-five in overall yards per attempt this season.
numberFire's model has no conviction on the tight spread, so it's probably best to assume a close game rather than a thumping by either side. The slight lean on the over should be best for all interested in the daily fantasy prospects of the game.
With two very relevant games in each team's sample (their first meeting last month and the two College Football Playoff games), here are the market shares in those games for each position group entering the contest. If a player is not listed, they did not record a target, rush attempt, or pass attempt in either game:
Quarterbacks
| PLAYER | TEAM NAME | ATT PER GAME | 2021 ATT PER GAME | 2021 YPA | RUSH ATT PER GAME | RUSH YDS PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stetson Bennett | UGA | 39.0 | 20.1 | 10.10 | 1.8 | 25.3 |
| Bryce Young | ALA | 35.5 | 35.1 | 9.12 | 0.9 | 19.4 |
Running Backs
| PLAYER | TEAM NAME | RUSH ATT PER GAME | 2021 ATT PER GAME | RUSH SHARE % | TGT PER GAME | 2021 TGT SHARE PER GAME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson Jr. | ALA | 21.0 | 19.1 | 55.5% | 1 | 7.2% |
| Trey Sanders | ALA | 10.0 | 7.0 | 15.7% | 1 | 1.3% |
| Zamir White | UGA | 9.5 | 10.6 | 30.6% | 2 | 2.6% |
| James Cook | UGA | 8.5 | 7.6 | 22.2% | 5 | 8.1% |
| Kendall Milton | UGA | 7.0 | 8.0 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.6% |
| Daijun Edwards | UGA | 4.0 | 4.9 | 10.1% | 0 | 1.4% |
| Kenny McIntosh | UGA | 3.0 | 4.7 | 11.6% | 4 | 6.6% |
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
| PLAYER | TEAM NAME | TGT PER GAME | TGT SHARE | 2021 TGT PER GAME | 2021 TGT SHARE | 2021 YARDAGE SHARE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | UGA | 10.0 | 26.0% | 4.7 | 19.1% | 23.9% |
| Jameson Williams | ALA | 9.0 | 30.9% | 7.9 | 23.3% | 31.9% |
| John Metchie III | ALA | 8.0 | 21.6% | 9.8 | 27.1% | 24.4% |
| Slade Bolden | ALA | 5.5 | 17.1% | 3.5 | 10.4% | 8.2% |
| Ja'Corey Brooks | ALA | 3.5 | 13.1% | 3.2 | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Jahleel Billingsley | ALA | 3.5 | 10.9% | 2.8 | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Jermaine Burton | UGA | 3.0 | 8.1% | 2.5 | 8.1% | 13.2% |
| Ladd McConkey | UGA | 3.0 | 9.4% | 2.6 | 10.7% | 12.5% |
| George Pickens | UGA | 3.0 | 7.5% | 2.3 | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Adonai Mitchell | UGA | 2.5 | 7.6% | 3.7 | 13.9% | 10.7% |
| Traeshon Holden | ALA | 2.0 | 5.4% | 1.8 | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| Kearis Jackson | UGA | 2.0 | 5.2% | 2.1 | 6.1% | 5.2% |
| John FitzPatrick | UGA | 1.5 | 4.7% | 1.4 | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Cameron Latu | ALA | 1.0 | 3.4% | 2.2 | 6.1% | 6.5% |
| Darnell Washington | UGA | 1.0 | 2.9% | 1.2 | 3.2% | 4.1% |
| JoJo Earle | ALA | 1.0 | 4.2% | 2.5 | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Javon Baker | ALA | 1.0 | 4.2% | 2.3 | 1.9% | 2.2% |
Player Picks
MVP Considerations
Bryce Young ($17,000): The Heisman Trophy winner will be the defacto MVP for most -- and for good reason. Young hurled 421 yards and 3 touchdowns when these two teams first met with an ineffective backfield. It's worth noting for tournaments that Young didn't have that same success against Cincinnati without wideout John Metchie III; he threw for just 181 yards but salvaged the day with three scores. Georgia was still second in all of FBS this season in passing yards allowed per attempt (5.9), so Young is not automatic.
Stetson Bennett ($14,000): Bennett has the best matchup of any player, but does he have the talent to capitalize on it? Alabama's pass defense was ranked just 28th in yards allowed per attempt (6.8), and that's how Bennett was able to post 340 yards and 3 touchdowns against them in the SEC title game. Georgia totally abandoned the run in a supremely positive script against Michigan with just 20 total attempts, so Bennett would be my choice for a single-entry tournament MVP to be different with upside.
Mid-Salaried Options
Brock Bowers ($12,500): Not only did Bowers post a solid FanDuel day with 5 catches (on 5 targets), 55 yards, and a score in the semifinal, but he saw 15 targets in a negative script the last time these two teams met. Georgia's receiving market shares are all over the place, but the star tight end is the closest thing Bennett has to a go-to option. His salary is more than fair, although he is a tight end, so the yardage upside probably isn't enormous considering he'll likely be popular.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($12,000): Robinson Jr. is a darkhorse MVP candidate, personally. He didn't practice on a severe calf injury and still posted an admirable 55 yards on 16 carries when these teams last locked horns. Fully healthy, he saw 26 of Alabama's 40 running back carries in the Cotton Bowl. The matchup is obviously brutal, but with that type of workload and goal-line equity over the smaller Trey Sanders ($8,000), he could score twice and be a can't-miss flex option.
James Cook ($11,000): Dalvin Cook's little brother housed a screen pass in the Orange Bowl, and he was actually Georgia's leading receiver with 114 yards through the air against Michigan. He's definitely the pass-catching back between him and Zamir White ($10,000), but Cook also will get some work on the ground. He's a positive addition to a lineup that assumes Alabama either leads significantly again or that Georgia is unable to find any running room -- both distinct possibilities.
Value Plays
Slade Bolden ($7,500): Bolden saw eight targets to just two for Ja'Corey Brooks ($8,000) in the SEC title game, but he'll be less popular after Brooks out-targeted him five to three -- and scored -- in the Tide's semifinal game. Both are essentially a coin flip as secondary options to Jameson Williams ($14,500). It's a crucial choice, though, as Williams will presumably see heavy coverage with the aforementioned Metchie III no longer in the Alabama wideout corps.
Darnell Washington ($6,000): If you feel possessed to punt all the way down (presumably in cash games to afford all three of the bonafide studs), Washington would be the best punt in an admittedly grim tier. His last reception was a touchdown in the SEC Championship against this same Crimson Tide squad, and the big-bodied sophomore does get snaps on the goal line. Anyone below Bolden at $7,500 isn't seeing regular snaps on the field and is a total dice roll.