College football season is nearly upon us, and there are plenty of NCAA football odds and outrights on FanDuel Sportsbook we can explore.
The Sun Belt conference is headlined by three double-digit win teams from last year -- the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, and the Appalachian State Mountaineers -- who are the three heaviest favorites in the conference.
| Team | Conference Odds | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|
| Appalachian State | +240 | 8.5 |
| UL Lafayette | +350 | 8.5 |
| Coastal Carolina | +440 | 8.0 |
| Marshall | +480 | 7.5 |
| Georgia State | +900 | 7.0 |
| Troy | +900 | 6.5 |
| South Alabama | +1700 | 5.5 |
| Old Dominion | +5000 | 4.5 |
| Southern Mississippi | +5000 | 5.5 |
| Texas State | +5000 | 4.5 |
| Arkansas State | +5000 | 4.5 |
| UL Monroe | +10000 | 2.5 |
| Georgia Southern | +10000 | 4.5 |
Conference Winner(s) to Bet
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (+350) - Louisiana is listed as the second-favorite in the conference at +350 but actually hold the best median rank (41st) in the conference according to the Massey consensus rankings. That just edges out Appalachian State (42).
Louisiana has to replace coach Billy Napier (who went to Florida) and plenty of production; however, their schedule is substantially easier than any other team in the country, according to my model. Appalachian State is the rightful favorite, but don't rule out Louisiana even with the turnover.
They're actually the fifth-most volatile team by standard deviation rank in the consensus ranks, so while there is downside, there is also upside.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+440) - Coastal Carolina is returning the most predicted points added (PPA) of any Sun Belt team, including 93.6% of its passing PPA with Grayson McCall under center. They shape up as touchdown favorites in six of their games this year but also have a trio of field-goal games.
If Louisiana comes out cold with their turnover, and if the loss of receivers for Appalachian State is too great, then they have a solid claim at supremacy here. They're also a very volatile team but are viewed as a top-40 team by some, and that upside is appealing for a conference outright.
Win Total(s) to Target
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns | Over 8.5 (-135) - Again, Louisiana's schedule overall should be beneficial for them in 2022. They rate out with 9.3 expected wins in my model this year as a result, and just one of their opponents is inside the top 90 in Massey's ratings. They're projected to rank 55th in defensive S&P+.
Arkansas State Red Wolves | Over 4.5 (-120) - The Red Wolves did lose a lot of production this season but will have Florida State transfer James Blackman running the offense.
In addition to being favored in four of their games, seven of their games are projected to be three-point spreads, so some variance going their way can lead to an over.