Wednesday's island game has a surprising amount of drama around it.
Earlier this week, multiple Southern Methodist players (though none being massive impact starters) announced they will enter the transfer portal. That's caused some chaos and dropped them to 2.5-point 'dogs against Central Florida.
The former self-declared national champions are 3-1, but they've played just the 76th-best schedule in the nation. They lost a close contest to Louisville, the only projected bowl team they've faced so far.
SMU is still likely heading to a bowl game, so should we back the Mustangs or Knights in Orlando?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
SMU Mustangs at Central Florida Knights
SMU +2.5 (-110) - 3 Stars
It's far easier to be impressed with SMU in the past two weeks (0-2 record) than UCF's past two weeks (2-0).
They lost to a Maryland team that pushed Michigan to the brink, and they were within a score of the red-hot Texas Christian Horned Frogs. Meanwhile, Central Florida beat Florida Atlantic and Georgia Tech -- neither of whom are likely to be playing in December.
SMU is a handful on offense. Junior Tanner Mordecai leads this up-tempo attack, and he's got soon-to-be NFL star Rashee Rice on the outside. The 'Stangs have also found a bit of a running game with Tre Siggers, who has 200 yards rushing already in just three games.
Meanwhile, UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee managed just 131 yards against Louisville. It was ugly.
With both of these teams outside the top-80 spots in defensive yards per play allowed, expect plenty of points in this one. It's easy to favor Mordecai, Rice, and the SMU offense to win a shootout given what they've done so far against teams making noise at the very top of the sport.
Our model is doing just that, picking SMU to win outright as underdogs 63.2% of the time.