Now we're getting to the meat and potatoes of the college football season.
We've got two ranked teams in action on Thursday from Power 5 conferences. In one game, our model is expecting the ranked side at home to demolish their conference foe. In the other, I'd be wary of expecting as many points as the public is.
How should we bet on these Thursday night showcases?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina State Wolfpack
North Carolina State -13.5 (-110) - 5 Stars
Over 39.5 (-110) - 5 Stars
Our model is forecasting a romp in Raleigh.
It's giving a massive green light to fire up the North Carolina State Wolfpack in this one -- even without quarterback Devin Leary for the rest of the season. Jack Chambers will get the nod.
That's because the Virginia Tech Hokies have been absolutely atrocious this year on both sides of the ball. On offense, they're 119th in FBS in yards per play (4.2). That's not a great starting point. You could point to their defense (51st in yards per play allowed) as a strength of the team, but they were gashed by Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda for 320 yards and 6 touchdowns two weeks ago. Not great, Bob!
Our model expects N.C. State puts up 38.7 points on its own in this one. That's why it's assigning a 77.5% chance that this game goes over this meager total of 39.5.
Of course, VA Tech has struggled to score all year, so if the Wolfpack are flirting anywhere near that point total, it could be opposite a near-bagel on the other side. That's why it expects N.C. State to cover 84.0% of the time.
This is one of the model's best-pinpointed spots of the year, so don't miss out.
Utah Utes at Washington State Cougars
Under 54.5 (-105) - 1 Star
I couldn't agree more with our model -- which is smarter than me -- about N.C. State. I'm a bit split on this one, though.
It's actually assigning a two-star probability to Utah's -275 moneyline as they travel to face Washington State. I actually prefer the Cougs' spread, but our method of arrival is very similar.
Wazzu's defense is incredibly underrated. They're 50th in FBS in terms of yards per play despite already facing Oregon and Southern California. That's probably why ESPN's SP+ analytical rankings see the Cougars as the 25th-best defense in the country.
Washington State has been a bit more benign in terms of offensive yards per play (68th), but the reason I prefer them to cover the spread? The Utes' defense is an atrocious 111th in yards per play. ESPN's giving them a bit more credit as the 42nd-best defense.
Still, if we're getting two top-50 defenses with a total this large, that's something we've got to ponder. The best consensus bet between the model and me here is the under, which it sees hitting 53.4% of the time.
With it assigning a 51.7% chance that Washington State covers, the model is almost with me on the Cougs' seven-point spread as a value bet, too. After all, a Thursday night draw in Pullman is a brutal assignment for Utah.