The Player
Justin Hardy may be the least athletic player I will profile in this series, but he is one of my favorites. I remember watching him dominate against the athletically superior Florida Gators for 11 receptions, 160 yards and a touchdown and thinking he was a 6'2", 4.5-second, 40-yard-dash type of guy.
As it turns out, Hardy stands at just 5'10" and 192 pounds, but don't tell him that! He will out fight and out jump you each step of the way, and his competitive attitude is what allowed him to stand out against the many athletic freaks in the Gators' secondary. In that game alone, he demonstrated outstanding hands, leaping ability, and body control for a player his size, and he consistently worked back towards the quarterback to present an open target.
But in the NFL, it takes more than a big heart to compete; you need a baseline of athleticism. A quick look at Hardy's measurables is perhaps cause for optimism:
| Name | Hght | Wght | 40 yd | 10 yd | Bnch | Vert | Broad | 3Cone | 20 ss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5' 11½" | 204 | 4.58 | 1.65 | 12 | 28½" | 110" | 7.55 | 4.57 |
| Dwayne Harris | 5' 10" | 203 | 4.53 | 1.67 | 10 | 34" | 111" | 6.77 | 4.21 |
| Kendall Wright | 5' 10¼" | 196 | 4.61 | 1.53 | 4 | 38½" | 121" | 6.93 | 4.18 |
| Julian Edelman | 5' 10⅜" | 195 | 4.52 | 1.52 | 14 | 36½" | 123" | 6.62 | 3.92 |
| Stedman Bailey | 5' 10" | 193 | 4.52 | 1.58 | 11 | 34½" | 117" | 6.81 | 4.09 |
| Marqise Lee | 5' 11¾" | 192 | 4.52 | 1.56 | 11 | 38" | 127" | 6.96 | 4.01 |
| Justin Hardy | 5' 10" | 192 | 4.56 | 1.57 | 11 | 36½" | 114" | 6.63 | 4.21 |
| Antonio Brown | 5' 10" | 186 | 4.56 | 1.58 | 13 | 33½" | 105" | 6.98 | 4.18 |
His closest athletic comparison would be Antonio Brown, but testing alone does not the best receiver in the NFL make. While his leaping ability, hands and agility are all fantastic, you just don't see Hardy playing with the same urgency and acceleration that allow Brown to dominate.
Separation from athletic defensive players will determine just how good Hardy can be, but if the young wideout can learn to maximize his natural talent, the potential is certainly there for him to emerge as an effective fantasy player.
The Opportunity
The Kyle Shanahan offense does not appear ripe for the emergence of a second or third option behind superstar Julio Jones. Although Shanahan has rarely coached an effective quarterback, the best a second receiver has done under his system is Kevin Walter's 900 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2008. Anthony Armstrong had a similar season in 2010 but scored only 3 touchdowns.
In 2015, Roddy White should have been that player, but age and diminishing skills seemed to catch up with him, and he is still available on the free agent market. As a result, Jones saw 203 targets, with running back Devonta Freeman ranking second on the team with 97.
Mohamed Sanu was signed to replace White in that role, but based on our Reception NEP per target metric, Sanu hasn't been anything more than average. His 2015 score of 0.63 put him on par with players such Jarius Wright, Andre Johnson, and Chris Hogan.
While you can't expect Shanahan to adapt his system to allow three receivers to flourish, Ryan is by far the most accomplish passer he has worked with, and another 4,500-yard season seems likely. Julio will get his, and the team will attempt to prove Sanu was worth the money, so Hardy may have to wait for his opportunity to become more than just a role player.
Still, his competitiveness and ability should get him on the field, and he is a player worth monitoring as this preseason progresses.