San Diego Chargers head coach Mike McCoy may be watching his squad slowly weather away, as the core players on his roster get old, injured, or expensive. Sure, the Chargers have two 9-7 finishes in the last three years, and they have one playoff appearance, but things are looking down for this team at the moment.

It hasn’t been as dramatic a plummet as other teams, but McCoy’s Chargers in 2013 ranked 11th in the NFL with a 2.95 nERD. Last year, they put up a -3.85 nERD that ranked 20th. The big concern is that they are losing the prime years of quarterback Philip Rivers -- who turns 35 this year -- and the final years of tight end Antonio Gates. This is the year to seize their potential.

The Chargers have been a work in progress on defense, though, and they’ve averaged a 0.09 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play during McCoy’s tenure. The contract holdout with the third overall pick in this year’s draft, defensive end Joey Bosa, is not going to help, safety Eric Weddle departed in free agency, and linebacker Donald Butler was cut. While there were some improvements, we’ll see if they turn out to be more than spinning wheels. There is a lot more risk in this defense than it seems.

Seat Heat: 4 “Scorchios” out of 5. With Peyton Manning retired and the Denver Broncos looking mortal, the AFC West should be up for grabs once again. If McCoy can’t get his team to jump on this opportunity, it may be the end of his line in San Diego.