ADP: 20th overall (2.08)

Mike Evans has a pair of 1,000-yard seasons under his belt before his 23rd birthday, but there is almost this sentiment that he has been a little underwhelming.

It likely stems from his WR27 finish last season when he was drafted as WR13 early in the third round. A lot of the reason behind his underwhelming fantasy output was some horrendous luck.

His bad luck centers squarely on touchdowns as he got into the end zone just 3 times despite making 50 catches for 1,206 yards. Evans had more receiving yards than two wideouts -- Eric Decker and Doug Baldwin -- who finished in the top 10 in standard leagues a year ago.

According to our Net Expected Points Metric (NEP), which you can read more about in our glossary, Evans should have scored 7.63 touchdowns in 2015. If he had, you can bet it'd cost a bit more to acquire him this season.

It's not like Evans has some sort of red zone deficiency, either. In 2014, he grabbed 8 of his 13 red zone targets, and at 6'5", 228 pounds, he's ideally built to win in jump-ball situations, something he did as a rookie.

Evans was very clearly Jameis Winston's top weapon in 2015, recording a massive 28.46% target market share, although that number is slightly skewed by Vincent Jackson missing five games. Still, though, Evans is a target hog. With Austin Seferian-Jenkins underwhelming this offseason and Jackson going on his age-33 campaign, Evans will likely have a huge role again this year.

In PPR formats, Keenan Allen, whose ADP is 2.10, may be the better selection, but in standard formats, Evans' touchdown upside -- our projections peg him to score 7.86 touchdowns and finish as WR11 -- gives him an edge.

As our Brandon Gdula put it so perfectly earlier this offseason: just draft Evans and don't worry about it.