Robert Griffin III is the kind of pick you make if you really want a chance at a game-changing fantasy quarterback because the logic behind it is more he's-done-it-before rather than he's-really-good.

His most recent metrics were stomach-turning: a -36.84 Passing NEP on 247 drop backs in 2014. That was good enough to rank him 36th among 37 passers with 200-plus drop backs in per-play Passing NEP. Even his Rushing NEP (-0.39) was horrible.

But we've seen him finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback before, and he's going to get a crack for the Cleveland Browns with the dynamic Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, and Terrelle Pryor out wide. Tight end Gary Barnidge was second in Reception NEP per target (0.82), trailing only Rob Gronkowski (0.88) among high-volume tight ends, and Duke Johnson, per our metrics, was a top-10 receiving back as a rookie.

If it all clicks for Griffin, you'll be glad you took a shot. If not? He's going to cost you a 14th-round pick if his ADP holds.